The Study On The Cycle Undulation Law Of Pork Market In Heilongjiang Province

The Study on the Cycle Undulation Law of Pork Market in Heilongjiang province was of great significance of theories and practice.Producers,consumers and policy makers all paid attention to pork price,since then played an important role in production and consumption,china had seen severral violent price flutuations since 1985,in which year the pork marketoriented system stared.Recently, pork market showed a phenomennon of periodic wavy rule in Hei longjiang Province Ups and downs of pork market influenced farmers' and city dwellers' lives constantly,because pork was the main meat in eating habit in China .So it could not be changed in short term.This motivated the study of pork prices determination.The objective of this paper was to obtain the quantitative results of factors affecting pork prices.Then,we could judge the causes,trends and features of price changed.When these results were available,we could put forward policy suggestions to smooth the fluctuations of pork prices.For the sake of getting this target, this paper firstly proceeding the micro analysis of Heilongjiang pork market. For the better mastering the tendency and features of pork market and and pork price, the author analyze this problem from three aspects, including the history analysis of our pork market development, the pork market features and the current circumstance, therefore could master and know compressively the variety of pork market and pork price, the analysis of pork market couldn't confine to the above but to proceed quantitative and qualitative economic analysis, of which it included spider net model availabled to construct market and price game concerning with pork industry chain. Further, on the different circumstance of the current port market, it analyzed the trigger factors of affecting Heilongjiang pork market cyclical fluctuation. The Projection Pursuit Classification (PPC) model deduced the major factors from many factors influencing the pork market. Based on the model conclusion, identifying trigger factors of Heilongjiang Province. So it provided reasonable theory basis to the Heilongjiang pork market.Above the theory research, the paper proceeded empirical Analysis from the pork price(2000- 2007) to the pork yield(2000-2006),it applied the time sequence model based on matlab and grey theory:GM(1,1) to construct quantization empirical analysis to the pork market. On the condition that passes tested, forcasting pork price and yield of future years.So the Heilongjiang Province managers took reasonable policy to intervention, the farmers could reasonably add pork numbers.Combinating above-mentioned study, This article suggested:First,pork store system should be consummated, pork store institutiones should be established,and a certain quantitative live pig and pork storeroom should be sustained in order to stabilize price.Second,the highest pork price should be instituted,and it should be controled in a extent which people could accept.Third, the construction of circulation component element should be strengthened.Walk the way of association development and together assume market risk.Fourth,goverment positively supported.Fifth, disease epidemic prevention system should be established.livestock and poultry disease epidemic prevention system should be established and perfected,in order to decrease grave plague and the impact of pork consumption.Six, early warning system and information leading should be established. Effective matketletter should be provided,and live pig production and pork price early warning system should be established.Facing intensely fluctuating pork price,the most effective means was that goverment provided accurate and effective marketletter.