Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Pork-price Fluctuation In China

The "No.1 Central Document" of China for recent three years,focusing on the pig-industry and the supply of pork,pointed out clearly the Requirements and directions of the pig-industry development,because stable production and secure supply of pork situated the most important station of food industry in China.The fluctuation of pork price would mirror the supplying of the pork-market,make happen the changing of the food price in China and interfere the CPI changing.Checking the events of years,the outbreak of African swine fever and novel coronavirus pneumonia happening together in the nearly years,people lived hard because of the pig cycle of mach loner duration and much larger margin.Above all,the problem of sustainable and stable development of pig industry needs to be solved urgently.In this paper,the pork price as the interpreted variable,select 12 indicators from 4 dimensions as the explanatory variables,and the VAR model is used to analyze the influencing factors and fluctuation of pork-price in China.The main contents of this paper include 5 aspects.Firstly,the writer put forward the research problems that focus on fluctuation of Pork-price in educational circles in recent years,which basing on sortnig out and summarizing some related and finished literatures at home and abroad.Secondly,the writer explains and combines the relevant theories mainly used to study the fluctuations of agricultural products price.Thirdly,from the perspective of the market,the writer analysis demand and supply of the pork and substitute in China.Fourthly,combined with the time-varying fluctuations characteristics of market price,constructed VAR model according to the relevant price data from2013--2022,the writer analyzes the impact of main influencing factors on pork price fluctuation.Fifthly,according to the research results,this paper puts forward research conclusions,and makes some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the efficient and healthy development of the industry.According to the research,this paper draws the following four conclusions.Firstly,pork-price is greatly affected by the number of live pigs on hand and the number of pigs would be slaughtered,and to a certain extent by the number of sows that can be bred in the first three quarters.Secondly,disturbance in the pork market may exacerbate the extent or duration of pork price fluctuations,but it is not a decisive factor inducing significant pork price fluctuations.Thirdly,the interaction between pork prices and meat substitute prices is small.Fourthly,the price of piglet,the price of corn,the number of live pigs on hand,residents’ disposable income,and the price ratio between pork and grain related closely to the pork price fluctuation,the first order of delay being the optimal order of delay,pork price being the Granger reason for the change of piglet price,and the change of the price ratio between pork and grain and pork price is the Granger reason for each other.According to the results of impulse response function,the piglet price reached the peak of positive impact in the sixth period,while the impact of the number of live pigs on hand reached the trough of negative impact in the fifth period.Among the main influencing factors,the number of live pigs on hand is the strongest impact on the pork price,followed by the ratio of pig to grain.According to the research results,in order to suppress fluctuations in pork prices,this paper proposes to strengthen government monitoring and establish information release mechanism;strengthen communication and learn from each other about advanced breeding models;build a modern and differentiated breeding system;improve the self-sufficiency rate of each region and change the circulation pattern of live pigs.