Research On The Characteristics And Trend Of Pork Supply And Demand In The Province Of Heilongjiang

With the improvement of national economy development,improve people's lives and the balanced idea,people on pork consumption demand increasing.In recent years,due to the imbalance between supply and demand led to a series of pork production and consumption volatility,fluctuations in the price fluctuations,not only bring losses to farmers economic benefits,but also let consumers face a very big market risk,thereby affecting the balanced development of animal husbandry.Therefore,the study of the fluctuation characteristics and effect factors of the production and consumption of pig industry,in order to promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the pig industry,to meet the consumption needs of urban and rural residents,has become a major issue related to people's livelihood.Based on the historical data,this paper makes an in-depth study on the current situation and future supply and demand situation of pig production in Heilongjiang province from two perspectives of production and consumption:(1)from the two perspectives of pig production and pork consumption analysis of industrial development in Heilongjiang Province,the pig that: since 2000,Heilongjiang province pig production and pork consumption changes in pig industry development features.In terms of pig production: pork production and pork prices have been significantly changed;in terms of pork consumption: pork consumption in Heilongjiang province is increasing,consumption levels will increase.(2)the fluctuation characteristics and effect factors of pig production in Heilongjiang province.The characteristics of Heilongjiang province hog production fluctuation were analyzed using the HP filtering method,it is found that the fluctuation of hog production in Heilongjiang is showing the main features of three aspects namely pork slaughter and pork production growth trend in the same year,hog production in Heilongjiang province were particularly evident in the special case,the amplitude and slowing of hog production in Heilongjiang show cyclical fluctuations but the trend has slowed in recent years;secondly,the research method of hog production fluctuation cause the application of factor analysis,found that the influence factors of pig production is mainly composed of four factors,namely the supply factor,demand factor,production factor and exogenous factor.The supply factor is the most influential,the demand factor is the second,and the production and exogenous factors are the least.(3)characteristics and effect factors of pork consumption in Heilongjiang province.Heilongjiang province pork consumption to improve the living standards of the residents aremainly with its own characteristics,namely residents' consumption of pork on the whole in increased year by year,but from the structure and reduce the proportion of pork consumption gap between urban and rural residents,urban residents' consumption level of rural residents is slightly higher than that of pork.The main factors affecting pork consumption are pork price,pork meat quality,consumer food safety and nutrition and health awareness.The price of pork has the biggest impact on the residents' consumption demand,while the consumers' food safety awareness is the second,but the influence of the meat quality and nutrition and health is still very large.(4)forecast and balance analysis of pork supply and demand in Heilongjiang.First carries on the forecast to the next five years in Heilongjiang province pork production and consumption by ARMA model showed that pork production and consumption of serious imbalance;secondly,according to the gap between production and consumption,analysis of its causes.Finally,by adjusting the coefficient of supply and demand,we can adjust the quantity of production and consumption.Heilongjiang pork supply and demand in the next five years to maintain a basic balance.Through the analysis of the characteristics of the development of pig production in Heilongjiang Province,it is very important to guide the practice of all aspects of the pig industry and the development of pig industry in Heilongjiang province.