The Empirical Analysis On The Impact Of China's Stock Market Wealth Change To Urban Residents' Consumption

The research about the impact of stock market wealth change to resident's consumption from the United States. During the late 20th, there was a long term stock market boom with an increasing consumption in United States. Theory suggests that stock market boom may increase consumption pressures. The drop of stock prices, in the United States after early 2000 contribute to a slowdown in consumption which promoted the United States more theoretical research about this. In China, stock market have created no long before, but it is important to know how about our stock market impact consumption.In this paper, combining the theoretical analysis and empirical testing. Using the dynamic optimized theory, game theory, co integration analysis and impulse response model in econometric analysis as the research tools, from the long-time, short-time and the stock market fell three different aspects to research the relation of china's stock market wealth change and the residents'consumption. through the experience from the U.S. stock market, probes into some constraints factors on China's situation, and in accordance with these factors put forward the corresponding measures and methods.In the theory analysis part, first by the research problem definition, this paper's research problem is the changes of residents'stock financial assets effects on the consumption. On this basis, With Friedman's lasting income theory and Modigliani's life-cycle theory, Further establish the most dynamic optimization model to support the possibility exists of stock market wealth change to consumption. Finally prompt the view of the stock market can create not a zero-sum game and introduce the transmission mechanisms.According to the empirical analysis, in the long-term use the Co integration Analysis and in the short-term use the impulse response function simulation, at the same time drawing on the U.S. stock market experience, there are two conclusions:(1) because of the size small, volatile, system is not prefect and the "crowding-out effect", est. our country's stock wealth change impact consumption is not exist in the long time, but in the short time the result of impulse function show that the changes in the value of the stock market wealth to consumer is significant. (2) During January 2001 to May 2005, China's stock market fell but consumption has increased, mainly because of China's population single structure of income and property income of the total income ratio is too low.In a word, at this stage through changes in China's stock market wealth to expand the consumer, stimulating domestic demand still exist certain restrictions. Need to build a stable, sustainable development of the stock market, and promote "policies to enrich the people," In the meantime, the stock market should also pay attention to the negative impact on consumption, when stock market is boomed, we should take precautions and when stock market is sluggish, we should provide some countermeasures to recovery consumer'confidence.