Risk Analysis Of Hydropower Project Based On Analytic Network Process

Risk factors coming from the technology, the economy, the nature and the social and other aspects, are interdependence and interaction during the development and construction of hydropower projects, so they are very difficult to quantify. By analyzing the risk characteristics of hydropower and research actuality of risk analysis, a method of based on analytic network process (ANP) is proposed to study risk factors of the hydropower projects. The content studied and conclusions drawn are as follows:1. The research actuality of risk analysis of hydropower project and analytic network process are reviewed in detail. Compare the common risk identification mentods and study the classification of the risk evaluation methods.2. Introduce analytic network process (ANP) at the aspects of structural principle and calculating principle, and general solving method and procedure of ANP are provided. Compare ANP with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) from multi-angular, which indicates ANP is provided with predominance on solving complex system problem than AHP.3. Study on risk identification of hydropower project based on work breakdown structure (WBS) and risk breakdown structure (RBS). Establish multi-criteria and multi-hierarchy structural model of ANP of hydropower project risk factors, and the solution of the risk factor weight vectors in the model is described and studied in detail, then the risk analysis process flow of hydropower project based on ANP is presented.5. To take one actual hydropower project as an example, WBS and RBS is applied to identify risk factors, and ANP is used to analyse the risk. The result indicates that the proposed method can inflect complicated relationship of risk factors more effectively and discover the key risk factors, so it provides the important reference value for risk control of the dropower project.