Empirical Analysis On Land Demand Of Regional Economy And Social Development

Land use change is evidently impact by human activity, especially in urban areas. The core of the study on social economy and land use in development zone is to study the human demand drive in the development of construction land. According to the further study on driving mechanism of land use change, it provides evidence for the modulation of driving factors. Development zone as the important economic growth point can drive the region development, optimize industrial structure, promote the urbanization process, and so does in Changchun who takes the tourism industry as the pillar industry. Therefore, the study on regional social and economic development and land use has important significance. Jingyue economic development zone is the important part of the new district of southern Changchun. Until the end of 2005, the gross land resource reaches 44,983.68 ha in the development zone. The areas of agricultural land, construction land and unutilized land are 31,748.3 ha, 10,249.15 ha, 2,986.22 ha, respectively. Because of the change of administrative division, the gross land resource increases 25,590.68 ha compared with 1996. By the impact of natural resources, social economy and technical condition, land resources utilization in development zone has the characteristics as follow: predominant type of land use is outstanding and ecological environment is favorable; high land use capability and relatively full utilization of resource; the condition of cultivated land resource is predominant and the quantity and quality of forest land is well; convenient transportation, obvious location advantage and capacious development prospect.Based on available data, information, hardware equipment and statistical software, the study construct prediction model of social economic indicator and relation model between social economic development and construction land by trend extrapolation and regression analysis. We prediction the constructive land scale of development zone in 2010 and 2020 by relevant mathematic model, and provide reliable scientific basis for the decision-making in land supply in development zone. Usually, more accurate research method is based on the correlation analysis between construction land quota and socio-economic influential factors, and adopts trend extrapolation, regression forecasting method, per capita construction land target and classifying sum of land use index to predict constructive land scale. But, there is not enough historical data in development zone. Although we can get time series data that roughly reflect reality by interpolation processing, these data can't be processed by correlation analysis from the view of mathematics. So, we adopt trend extrapolation, gray forecasting method, per capita construction land target and classifying sum of land use index to predict constructive land scale so as to raise the level of scientificalness in forecasting process. By comprehensive of different types of method, we predict that the total land resources of non agricultural construction project, small town planning and urban planning of Changchun is about 9,080.89 ha, among which, the area of urban planning of Changchun is 6926.88 ha which accounts for 76.28% in the total land resources; the area of small town planning is 583.17 ha which accounts for 6.42% in the total land resources; the area of non agricultural construction project is 1,570.84 ha which accounts for 17.30% in the total land resources. All the projects will occupy the infield 8,781.07 ha, among which, the area of conversion of cropland to forest is about 3,784.69 ha which accounts for 43.10%; the area of urban planning of Changchun is 3,660.58 ha which accounts for 41.69%; non agricultural construction project is 10.98% of all; garden plot is 88.29 ha; forest land is 565.42 ha; grassland is 15.28 ha; residential and industrial area is 3,405.58 ha; water area is 310.69 ha; unutilized land is 573.32 ha. All the project are constructed into two stage, which the first 50% will have completed during 2006-2010,and another 50% will have accomplished during 2011-2020.