Financial Risk Study On Electricity Market Based On VaR Method

The electric power industry is the foundational industry of the national economy,and its operating condition has a material effect on the development of the national economy. The development of the national economy will be restricted by the power shortage,but a serious surplus of electricity is not beneficial to the efficient use of resources.In time and space,it exists a "shortage-surplus" imbalance of the electric market.Even though, considering the market economy,the imbalance is a normal market phenomenon,the change of the electric market from shortage to surplus or from surplus to shortage is very intense,which makes the electric power market to face enormous risks.The multi-level risk management to the electric power market is helpful to its health and lasting development,and the risk assessment is the core of the risk management.This paper comments on the risk measurement technology on the basis of selection of VaR (Value at Risk)risk research tool,and the use of VaR and the history of simulation, analysis and Monte Carlo method,the electricity market in a shorter period of Hunan's financial risk research results showed that the three VaR method can be achieved on the electricity market in Hunan Province quantitative analysis of financial risk,short-term financial risks has good prediction.In the study,in view of the special nature of the electricity market in the history of simulation application,a day after the estimated average price in a liquidation under the confidence of the upper and lower limits,and projected gross profit of a single power network and electricity expenditures,the lower limit of the electricity market to predict financial risk analysis methods,the price will be used to replace the expression of the prices of financial assets expression and to consider the actual situation of price fluctuations,analytical methods will be applied to the analysis of the electricity market risk;in the Monte Carlo method,using the price forecast load and solutions related to the electricity market in the risk factor associated with greater risk of technology and the impact of the electricity market.It provides a method of the risk analysis in the electricity market for the investor, offers the experience for the VaR method applied to the financial risk analysis,and supplies the relevant administrative departments at all levels with the decision-making theory and the practice basis of the electricity market risk management and the optimization of the electric power industrial structure adjustment.