Research On Post-Evaluation Model And Method Of Electric Power Demand Forecasting

According to the complexity and stage of electric power demand forecasting, this paper established the index system for electric power demand forecasting post-evaluation. After making evaluation grades referring to the deviation of index, the membership function of each grade was obtained by incremental method. Introducing the modification factor and giving attention to the power demand forecasting and adjustment forecasting's great significance and effect, this paper established the hierarchical post evaluation model by evaluating the forecasting precisions of indicators in each layer, which could acquire evaluation results in each layer. Besides, as there were only few cases of post-evaluation for 5-year demand forecasting in electric power industry, and many factors affecting the demand forecasting, this paper introduced a concept of weighted mutual information content. Thus an approach to allocate impersonal weights of factors affecting electric power demand forecasting was obtained. Case study results showed that the established model and proposed approach were effective and practicable.