Research Of CNG Demand Forecast And CNG Filling Stations' Sites In JiNan

The development of CNG vehicles can solve such issues as shortage of petroleum resources, the imbalance of energy structure, the pollution of automobile exhaust, and it can nurture emerging industries. In recent years, given the support of the Government's policy, the economy of CNG vehicles, and the low emission, the number of CNG vehicles increased dramatically. CNG stations have also built in some cities, CNG stations' networks are formed. However, there are still exist many problems, such as lack of CNG stations, cost-effectiveness is not high, lack of planning, site layout is not reasonable,and so on.Based on the research of the reasonableness of CNG stations in Jinan, this article provides a basis and reference for planning CNG stations. It also presents approaches for evaluating the stations' rational layout in the overview. These approaches provide the basis of decision-making for planning work, designing work and management staff, and it also provides help for the CNG filling stations' investors. This study has important significance both in theory and reality.The article details in the CNG vehicles and the CNG filling stations. The author collects the number of compressed natural gas vehicles, the location of stations, equipments, and other data. On this basis, using two models to forecast the demand of CNG gas in Jinan, then evaluates the layout of CNG stations in Jinan. Finally, it presents basic methods of building CNG stations reasonably, and cited examples of site, with wish to provide references for CNG stations' layout in Jinan.The main innovation is that we base on the specific circumstances of Jinan, use qualitative forecast combined with quantitative prediction models like grey system theory prediction model and the trend extrapolation model to estimate the demand of CNG in Jinan. The result is more credible. Considering the history of CNG stations in Jinan, we can get the unique characteristics, then make reliable solutions, specify its future development direction, and it is very practical significance.