Research On The Sino-Russian Trade Based On Gravity Model

In seven years from 2000 to 2006,Sino-Russian trade has much sinuation,but it is rising in generally.From the traits of Sino-Russia,Sino-Russia trade level is not accord with Sino-Russia strategic collaboration friendship and seriously lags bilateral political relation.And it is also not accord with bilateral trade potentiality and economy scale. According to this situation,at first this paper reviews the development history of Sino-Russian trade and summarizes the traits of bilateral trade development and existent problems according to development status.By means of gravity model,This paper regresses the export model about China to Russia and west and east Russia with datum of 2005 based on these problems.With qualitative analysis,this paper analyzes the affection factors to Sino-Russian trade and calculates the export state about China to Russia and west and east Russia.The conclusion is drew by regression equation:(1) China's trade level to Russia is still lower;(2) under the low level trade model mainly made up of the inter-industry trade, the export of China to Russia tends to saturation.The endogenetic increasing mechanism of present Sino-Russia trade formation is insufficient and make the potential economy complement between China and Russia can not be changed into realistic trade increase;(3) the export potentiality to east Russia is bigger than the export potentiality to west Russia; (4) Sino-Russian trade needs outer factors to stimulate the Sino-Russia trade and founding region economy collaboration organization to improve the trade increase of China to Russia.At last this paper puts forward according policy suggestions according to regression results:(1) stimulating the development of Sino-Russian trade by outer measures, converting potentiality complement into realistic trade scale and making Sino-Russia trade realize to level upgrade and scale enlargement in the impulse course of general economy relation;(2) China should put the emphasis of the Sino-Russia trade on the export increase to east Russia about location choice;(3) founding a free trade region in northeast China and east Russia to impel the trade development from China to Russia with the advantage of region economy integrity;(4) trying hard to enhance the trade level of export commodities,continually increasing the affixation value of export commodities to Russia and changing the increase mode of Sino-Russian trade;(5) China should transfer emphasis from pure product complement to factor complement,such as science collaboration and labor collaboration.