The Research On Early-warning Mechanism Of Corporate Govern Risk For Group Company

As the perfection of group company system in our country day by day, the important effect of group corporation have come out gradually in economical development, for the gorvemance of group corporation, it will must be creating the corporate govern risk. so the early-warning and the monitoring of corporate govern risk for group corporation real-time and accuratly become the important question which the theorists and the industrial world cared about. This is exactly the problem that this paper should study.The paper has reviewed the theory of the group corporation, the corporate govern risk and the early-warning, had found the research breakthrough point, and in this foundation, combined with the characteristic of group corporation governance, defined the connotation of corporate govern risk for group corporation. Meanwhile this paper further studied the source of corporate govern risk for group corporation, put forward the corporate govern risk mainly from the stock right structure, the capital structure, the internal goverance, the exteranl goverance, and had researched and analysised the production reason of the corporate govern risk for group corporation.The core of early-warning mechanism of corporate govern risk for group corporation is the construction of evaluation index system. The paper analyzed the reason for group corporation which the corporate govern risk produced, it divided the corporate govern risk into five kinds, respectively is the risk of stock rightstructure, the risk of capital structure, the risk of incentive and constraint, the risk of violation tendency and the risk of control subsidiary, And according the principles of the scientific, the systematic and the maneuverability, constructed an evaluation index system which had five primary indexes, fourteen secondary indexes and thirty three level indexes for group corporation.Moreover, this paper groped with the BP neural network model as early-warning method to evaluate the corporate govern risk for group corporation, use ten sample data of listed group corporation in 2006, on the foundation of dimensionless the sample data, carry on the application and the evaluation of the risk early-warning system for group corporation through the MATLAB software, propose the corporate govern risk for group corporation should divide into four ranks, such as the secure condition, the low risk condition, the moderate risk condition and highest risk condition, and around the change of corporate govern risk ranks for group corporation, investigate the precontrolling mode, the precontrolling method and the precontrolling countermeasures of corporate govern risk, realize the precontrolling of corporate govern risk for group corporation, then achieve the aim of preventing corporate govern risk and promoting competitiveness for group corporation.