Analysis And Forecast For Area Energy Saving Potential

With the energy supply situation getting worse in China, the government has brought out a specific goal of saving energy in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development at the beginning of 2006. This paper focuses on the researching objects, Hubei Province and the electric industry to provide academic foundation for the energy development plan making.Based on the energy economical theory and data foundation of the energy demand and supply, different methods have been used to forecast the energy demand and supply in mid-long term from several aspects. Firstly, from the angles of the energy resources, energy production scale, energy productivity and structure etc, the present condition of energy production of Hubei Province is analyzed. Secondly, a forecast model is built in accordance with the relationship between the energy consumption and the economic growth, based on the history data. On the basis above, the energy saving potential is calculated in the three main industries, also the mid-long range energy consumption forecasting of different departments in such main industries are given. Lastly, comparison with other three provinces and cities is made to illustrate the theory.Subsequently, the paper thoroughly dissects the current energy consumption situation and energy saving potential of power industry, which is the main consumer of energy. Finally, by applying thermal equilibrium method to the analysis of a power station, the paper establishes an object oriented thermo-economic analyzing model. The model put emphasis on the analysis and evaluation of small-index designing parameters that have a great impact on the thermo-economics. Instructional advice is also put forward to make the real operation better.