Analysis And Forecast Of The Influence Factors Of Real Estate Price

"Real estate problem is a people's livelihood problem".With the continued real estate price rising in recent years, the factors and its degree which influence the real estate price formation has been a hotspot in China. Analysis of the influence factors, its rule and the potential change direction of the real estate price formation will support a positive evidence for the government's real estate price control, at the same time, support a reference for consumers' and real estate investors' decision.With the real estate data of Jinan, the paper analyzed the influence factors of real estate price formation in two directions: A time series analysis of the real estate price influence factors and their relations through its demands and supplies based on 1998—2006 Jinan real estate price data; A cross section analysis of the properties and district factors of real estate price based on May 2008 to August 2008 Jinan second hand real estate market data.The paper is organized by following five parts:Chapter one is my introduction in which I referred to the background and significance of this paper, and in this part, I also discussed about the paper's purpose and its main methodology.Chapter two referred to the outline of real estate price and its influence factors. In this part, I also concluded the influence factors of real estate price and its fluctuations' causes in China.Chapter three is a time series analysis of the influence factors of real estate price. Based on Jinan real estate market data and the multiple regression analysis, I constituted demand and supply models separately.Chapter four gives a cross section analysis of the influence factors of real estate price. With the consideration of Jinan second hand market data, I analyzed this topic with construction and district factors separately.The last chapter is my conclusions in which I forecasted the trend of Jinan real estate price fluctuation and its main influence factors.The central points of my paper are: In time series analysis aspect, by using multiply regression method with the city population as a demand factor and land cost as a supply factor, this paper finds that as a demand element, there is a positive effect of population and the real estate annual sales area on the price; as a supply element, the investment and completion of residential area have a significant influence on the real estate price.In cross section analysis aspect, through the multiply regression analyzing of Jinana second hand real estate market data, I mainly find that in the same period the main influence factors of real estate price are the regional factors and its self conditions, for instance, the prosperous degree of businesses around the buildings and its own area have a significant influence on its price.This paper's main innovations are as follows:Based on the preexist literatures, this paper analyzed the main influence factors of the real estate price systematically and wholly. By the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, especially the quantitative analysis, this paper positively analyzed the effect mechanism of each factor's influence on its price by time series aspect and cross section aspect separately. This paper also forecasted the real estate price of Jinan with the construction of different models of relationship between residential prices and its influence factors based on Jinan residential market data.