Research On Supply Chain Risk Early-warning Of China Telecom Operators

With the sustained and rapid development of the telecommunication industry, the structure of telecommunication industry has changed in China, and the fierce competition brought telecommunication firms to an unprecedented situation. The overall trend of telecommunication industry: First, telephone business gradually turn to mobile business, till September 2008 fixed phone users reached a total of 353,150,000 in China, the average monthly reduction of 1,387,400; mobile phone users to reach a total of 624,046,000, the average monthly growth of 8,526,700. Second, the rapid development of Internet services. Internet Line users upto 69,349, an increase over Line at the end of last year; Internet access subscribers reached 80,808,000, an increase over 14,394,000 at the end of last year.In modern market competition is not only between enterprises but also among the supply chain where the enterprises is. Telecom firms'strategic choice of providers and maintain the number of users,directly impacted on the development of enterprises and supply chain stability. As a key role of supply chain telecom operators should be aware of the importance of taking the risk of early-warning management, and how to timely forecast and analysis all the event or sign on supply chain that may lead to risk, and take effective measure to avoid the occurrence of various crises. In this paper, basic on supply chain risk management and early warning theory, using qualitative analysis and quantitative research, study on supply chain crisis early warning system, to help enterprises well control and enhance the capacity of resist risks before supply chain crisis happens.This article is divided into five sections. First of all, reviewed the supply chain risk and the early warning of supply chain risk management theory. Followed by a systematic analysis of the supply chain risks in the supply chain of external risk, internal risk, as well as the overall risk in three aspects. Then basic on the second part established an indicator system of supply chain crisis early warning, and then using AHP analysis model evaluated the risk, and draw the results of evaluation. Finally, put forward corresponding countermeasures for the company in high risk and suggestion for China's telecommunication industry on supply chain risk to the establish a risk prevention mechanism in four area: improving the reflection of the rapid information-sharing system, enhance supply chain management operation, establish an effective incentive mechanism and promote benefit distribution system and knowledge-based human resources development and management.Basic on the research, this article provide an effective system and practical theory of early warning supply chain risk for telecom operators, in the mean time find a practical and theoretical method to against supply chian risk.