Research On Early Warning Of Supply Chain Risk In Industrial Construction Projects

Industrialized construction refers to the permanent works that are transported to the construction site by the modular prefabricated components prefabricated in the factory for assembly.Compared with traditional construction and production methods,industrialized construction methods have the advantages of high production efficiency,good safety performance,economies of scale,and resource conservation.In order to promote the sustainable development of the construction industry,the country is vigorously promoting industrialized construction methods.Industrialized buildings not only have the characteristics of fixed location,continuous production and long construction period of traditional construction projects,but also have the characteristics of mass production of manufacturing products and the diversity of participants.Therefore,the risk environment they face is also more complicated.This paper takes the industrial construction project supply chain as the research object,identifies the key risk factors in the operation process of the project supply chain,establishes the risk early warning model and builds the basic framework of the risk early warning system,and realizes the transformation of risk after-event control into pre-prevention,to Improve the stability and reliability of the project supply chain.First,this article explains the connotation of the industrialized construction project supply chain and expands its analysis.Combining the domestic construction market environment and the industrialized construction project management model,a project management company entrusted by the owner is built as the main body,based on the project's life cycle.Industrial construction project supply chain network structure,and analysis of the supply chain risk sources,constructed a WBS-RBS risk identification model,comprehensively identified the risk factors of the industrialized construction supply chain,and established a risk early warning indicator system based on the risk identification results.Eight types of risk factors,including natural environmental risk,economic risk,social risk,organizational management risk,assembly risk,construction part manufacturing risk,procurement risk,transportation and delivery risk,were collected,covering 27 secondary risk indicators,using subjective and objective Comprehensive weighting method is used to calculate the weight of risk early warning indicators.Secondly,by taking advantage of the fusion of cloud model and matter-element extension theory to deal with double uncertainties,a risk early warning model based on cloud matter-element theory is established.By calculating the comprehensive correlation degree and determining each item of the project supply chain according to the principle of maximum membership The risk level of risk factors and the overall risk early warning level of the project supply chain.Then,on the basis of risk identification and risk early warning model,a basic framework of supply chain risk early warning system with functions of risk identification,risk evaluation,risk warning,and risk prevention and control was constructed.The ultimate purpose of supply chain risk early warning is to prevent and control risks.Let's analyze the project supply chain risk prevention and control,and propose to build a risk prevention and control system that includes risk control strategies and risk prevention and control paths to facilitate specific operations in the project.Finally,the early warning model is applied to the risk warning of the supply chain of a prefabricated residential project.The result of the early warning shows that the overall risk level of the project is relatively high.After investigation,it is found that the result of the warning is in line with the actual situation.The research results of this paper can be directly used in industrial construction project supply chain management and risk prevention and control,which is conducive to improving the construction supply chain risk management level,improving the project supply chain operation efficiency,and providing reference for industrial construction project risk prevention and control.