Empirical Study On Financial Risk Of Real Estate In China

At present, real estate, especially housing industry has already become a new growth point of our national economy, the real estate industry, as a pillar industry of the national economy, plays a decisive role in national economic development, is a barometer of the country's economic development. The rapid development of real estate industry has greatly promoted economic development of china, and leads consumption of durables,decorating materials and so on, thereby stimulate the activity of the entire consume market and the GDP growth, along with the constant development of real estate market as well as the housing prices kept soaring, the real estate loans which is closely related to the real estate industry have also become the focus of attention. The "subordinated debt crisis" which broke out in America in 2007 has caused confusion in the global financial markets, has unfolded "the modern finance risk" incisively new change, called us to pay close attention to the financial risk, and simultaneously reminded us: the more in the market boom, the more should strengthen risk control and market supervision, we must establish a monitoring system of real estate prices and the real estate market bubble early warning system, take various measures to stabilize the market and maintain an orderly and healthy development of the real estate market. At this time to study the financial risk of real estate in general has extraordinary significance, we can reduce financial risk and endangering of the financial risk from a certain extent.In this article, through the study of literature at domestic and foreign, I introduce the real estate finance,real estate financial risk,the causes to this risk and VaR theory, after understanding these basic knowledge , we analyze and study the GDP,CPI,financial added value,the architecture added value,the price of commercial house,investment of real estate,real estate added value and loan based on the data of shanghai from 1993 to 2007, according to research results I have a monte-carlo simulation, and calculated value of the VaR. according to this, I analyze the development trend of real estate in shanghai, and anther important risk which is credit risk of real estate mortgage, provide certain theory basis and the technical support for the bank in individual mortgage aspect, Finally summarize the whole text, give some specific measures to our real estate financial risk in our country, with a view to achieve guarding against financial risks of real estate better.In this paper, the main innovation lies in that we use historical data mean and standard deviation for simulation in the past, but as economic of our country developed too rapidly in the resent years, If we use mean to analysis , we will get the result which is not very consistent with the market development direction, so we use the indicators in 2008 to replace the predictive value of historical data mean and use residual to replace the standard deviation in our Monte Carlo simulation; At the same time, we contact with the tight monetary policy in our country, have a pressure test on domestic loans, and obtain the disadvantages change of domestic loan can bring big risk to property developer, which can be recognized as early as possible and make property developer to diversify funding and financing.