Studies On The Fluctuation Of China's Grains Supply

Grains productions and supply is a very improtant issue to economical development of China which has 1.3 billions population. Through studying history data of China's grains productions,it tells us that China's grain supply is a clear volatile and shows a cyclical fluctuation. So this paper descripes the characteristics of its volatility.With the factors influncing fluctuation of China's grains supply,this paper examine the inside and outside factors by Grange causality test,cointegration test,error correction model,linear regression model,statistics analysis and so on. Inside factors are sown area of grains, structure of grains productions and costs and benefits of grains etc..Outside factors are natural factors, government's food Policy and international grains trade etc..With these measurement models to analysis these factors,we find that sown area of grains, structure of grains production, benefits of grains and government's food Policy are the mojor factors.To stabilize fluctuation of grains supply and ensure the steady growth of China's grains supply and food security,this paper makes recommendations from stabling sown area of grains,adjusting the grains structure,decreasing production costs of grains,increasing the profits of grains,protecting resources of grains,perfecting government's food policy and so on .