The Analysis Of Technological Leapfrogging Based On The Technological Trajectory Theory

For developing countries, in the new structure of the world economy out of "comparative advantage trap" and the advantage of the dilemma is a difficult task, and the key to advances in technology and knowledge has become a dynamic competitive advantage of the main source. Characterized by advanced technology to competitive advantage through the introduction of technology is usually not the conventional process of acquisition. Strategic choice of developing countries in technology, it is often trapped in a "technology import trap", that is, "the introduction of - behind - the introduction - to lag further behind," the course of the cycle. Introduction of technology in developing countries will also lead to neglect the cultivation of their own technological capabilities, such as the Southeast Asian economic crisis has exposed the region's economic development by relying on the flying geese pattern of industrial structure and technological process based on the introduction of the "export platform", the absence of independent development. In this case, we need some new theories and methods to guide.The concept of technology across is critical importance. Once developing countries have the appropriate skills and infrastructure (absorptive capacity), through the technological leap in the early development of a new generation of technology, access to new technology, it is possible to break with the past, the path-dependent accumulation of technological accumulation and the ability process. Further characterized by access to high-tech competitive edge, the comparative advantage of remodeling, and ultimately out of "comparative advantage trap" and Disadvantages dilemma. For developing countries, the process of technological catch-up in key areas is a technological leap for a breakthrough in order to achieve the ultimate goal of self-development as the process of uneven development. In theory, the technology paradigm determines the areas of technology research, issues, procedures and tasks, to solve specific issues selected model or models, have a strong exclusive. Along the defined by the paradigm of economic trade-offs of technology and technological progress activities compromise the technical track, it is based on technology as a paradigm to solve the problem of conventional patterns of activity, from technical paradigm implicit in the direction of technological change to make a clear choice the provisions of the decision is a set of possible technical direction, the external border of the technological paradigm from a decision by itself.Throughout the selection process technologies, the formation of a technical track, the two forces is the result of, first, the track of the formation of the impact of the role of technology itself, and the other is market demand for the role of technology options. Clearly the success of high-tech industry with the technology of choice is closely related to the track. Technical track to achieve the technical and economic combination of technological innovation determines the direction and strength possible, and thus determines that the objectives of the development of the industry and prospects. From a technical track, the concept of technological paradigm, we can be more effectively carried out innovative scientific forecasting, decision-making and technology options, accurately grasp the development trend of high-tech industry. Taken together, technology is only technology paradigm across the technical jump (corresponding to the track within the technical bounds) and the technology to create (inter-technology across the track). Technological leap at the same time include the speed of technological development and technology development direction of the two changes, the nature of those who are lagging behind technological development technology in the process of the development of unconventional jump. Integrated technological leap for the definition of a technological leap in fact, contains the four necessary aspects: 1, across the perpetrators, that is, a relatively low technological level of the main technologies; 2, was across the object, that is, the development of the technology of conventional rail; 3, across purpose of catching up and more than a technology leader; 4, the main features, non-continuity, non-leap-forward development.In the above theoretical analysis, based on analysis of the introduction of photovoltaic industry as the target. First of all, the situation from the industry, the world development, development of industry and technology, as well as the financial crisis in the new period that is under development in the photovoltaic industry as the breakthrough point; to the macro, meso, micro-light three perspective analysis of the overall production industries. Analysis of the photovoltaic industry, the law of technological development, that is, the photoelectric effect as the core technology, the formation of silicon-based photovoltaic power generation technology, thin film technology based on photovoltaic power generation technology and three laminated battery technology paradigm; and On this basis the formation of a single crystal silicon, polycrystalline silicon, amorphous silicon thin film, metal film, such as a substitute for a number of technical track. Pointed out the direction for the development of photovoltaic technology, and photovoltaic industry in China's future development strategy of technology options. According to the article related to the actual situation of photovoltaic industry, as well as up-to-date data on China's photovoltaic power generation costs at this stage to make a certain calculation; integrated measurement results, the state's macroeconomic policy, industrial track the future development of technology-led changes, as well as micro-technology enterprises selection of the actual situation of China's photovoltaic industry as a whole the next technological leap System made some suggestions. Recently, the product mainly of crystalline silicon products, the market should also be more concentrated in Europe and the U.S. market; the medium-term, and products are mainly products began to film more energy into the domestic market; long-term, that is, in breakthrough in the search for continuous improvement, and the possible direction of a breakthrough will be more focused on the improvement of conversion efficiency and cost reduction issues, focusing on high-end research and development of photovoltaic technology, applications of photovoltaic technology and system integration, it is necessary to establish a complete system of independent innovation, making China the world's photovoltaic technology research and development power, and thus the realization of the technology across the industry as a whole.