Forecast On Energy Consumption And Environmental Emissions Of Transportation Sector In China

Coupling with the fast development of economy and society,the improvement of people's life quality,as well as rapid industrialization and urbanization process,the severe situation of energy shortage is increasingly prominent,energy security and energy environmental problems are either gradually notable.While the bound of energy bottleneck is getting more severe today,transportation sector as a high energy consumption sector,ranked at the top of the sectors in terms of unit output value of oil consumption,has contributed high environmental emissions.Compared with 37.13 million tons of coal equivalents in 1985,the transportation energy consumption reached up to 185.83 million tons of coal equivalents in 2006.The shares of transportation energy consumption contributed to gross energy consumption of China grew from 4.85%of the year 1985 to 7.55%of the year 2006. Therefore,it is an important task for throwing off the energy dilemma especially the oil dilemma by working out the optimum energy stratagem and the optimization of transport energy construction and configuration.Firstly,China's transportation sector is composed of railway,highway,waterway, aviation sectors.The locomotives of transport in railway sector include steam locomotives, diesel locomotives and electrical locomotives.The vehicles of transport in highway sector include gasoline and diesel vehicles.The waterway transportation sector is composed of river boats,coastal boats and ocean-going boats.According to the statistical data from China's Statistical Yearbook and Yearbook of China Transportation & Communications,the fuel consumption in railway,highway,waterway,aviation sector from the year 1995 to the year 2005 which is decomposed from China transportation sector are computed.The complete decomposition model is applied to compute the contribution rate of impact factor.Secondly,based on the computed energy consumption of the four sectors from the year 1995 to the year 2005,the future energy consumption in transportation sector is predicted with the artificial neural network.The input variables are composed of China's population, GDP,the historical three years' energy consumption related to forecasted energy consumption. The output variable is the forecasted energy consumption.Based on effectiveness degree of combination forecasting method,combination coefficients is determined.The energy consumption to the year 2020 was forecasted.Then,the environmental emissions are computed based on the emission factors.Then,considering the factors affecting energy consumption of transportation sector, Energy consumption of transportation sector in the year 2020 was forecasted for high and low economic growth scenario based on GM-PLS model.The results show that the energy consumptions in transportation sector will reach 17877PJ and 17685PJ in 2020 for high and low economic growth scenario respectively.Finally,the forecast results are compared between the two kinds of models.The comparison results indicate the feasibility of PGNN model.