Energy Consumption Analysis And Demand Forecast Of China's Transportation Terminal

As China's production mode is constantly changing,the industrial structure has been optimized and upgraded.The operation efficiency of all walks of life largely depends on the development of the transportation industry.Therefore,the government continues to increase investment in the transport industry and actively develop the transport industry,to ensure that the construction of the transport industry can meet the needs of China's long-term economic development.Transportation belongs to the field of terminal energy use.Its energy use level lies behind industry and life,so it will play a more and more important role in Chinese society.The concept of energy consumption of transportation terminal in this paper includes transportation industry and non-industry,as well as transportation energy consumption of non-operational vehicles.In recent years,the growth of energy consumption in transportation terminals has been accelerating,and the proportion of energy consumption in society has been increasing,which has a very strong influence.At present,China's transportation industry is under the double pressure of increasing energy demand and rapidly expanding energy consumption.Therefore,China urgently needs to solve the problem of transportation energy demand and consumption.Not only that,in an environment of tight energy reserves,China's development is also constrained by high-intensity traffic energy consumption,traffic congestion and air pollution,and these problems have become constraints for the sustainable development of China's transport industry.Based on the above problems,this paper firstly takes the relevant data from 2002 to 2016 as samples,observes the situation and regularity of China's transportation terminal energy consumption,and verifies that the trajectory of China's transportation terminal energy consumption in the past 15 years is "S" shape.According to the actual situation,the factors affecting the trajectory are analyzed and determined from many aspects.The effect of the factors or indicators on the energy consumption trend of traffic terminals is deeply excavated by Granger causality test.Based on GM(1,1)model,the energy demand and output value of transportation terminal in the next 10 years are predicted respectively,and the final results are revised.The results show that by 2026,China's transport terminal energy demand will continue to expand,and theoutput value of the transport industry will continue to increase.According to the forecasting results,China can alleviate and improve the pressure of energy demand of China's transport terminals by adjusting,optimizing and upgrading the transport industry structure in the future.