Study Of Forecast And Analysis Of Hehei Transportation Energy Decomposition

Energy is the material basis of human social economic development and survival, transportation industry as a basis for the development of the national economy also must be supported with energy.The scale of our country’s transportation energy consumption is large and grow fast.Under the strategic integration of energy saving and coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei,transportation of Hebei province will usher in a new rapid development, and will be accompanied by a lot of energy consumption.So research on transportation energy demand forecasting and transportation energy consumption decomposition has important practical significance to the transport industry even the whole stability and sustainable development of the national economy in Hebei Province.Firstly, carding the models of energy consumption forecasting and factor decomposition,select variable weight combination forecasting model and LMDI model;Then analysis the status of the transport industry in Hebei Province,using Statistical Yearbook 2001-2012 of Hebei data estimate transportation energy consumption in Hebei province.Then establish a variable weight combination forecasting model of Hebei transportation energy consumption,and analysis the trends of every explanatory variables in the model,depending on the growth rate,form the base and the high-speed development scenarios,under two scenarios predict energy consumption in the transportation industry of Hebei Province.Then use LMDI decomposition model divided transportation energy consumption into four areas affect:impact of transport modes, the impact of passenger traffic, the impact of transportation energy intensity, transportation turnover level of influence,Using time-series decomposition calculate the impact of the change and the contribution rate of various factors on the energy consumption.Finally, the above series of research methods, analysis, combined with the development and current status of energy use in the transportation industry in Hebei Province, proposed a viable future transportation policy and energy saving way to provide the policy basis for the development of the transportation industry in Hebei Province.