Decision Method Of Delay Problem In Distribution System

In the distribution system numerous uncertainties occur because of the disruption factors such as accident, traffic, vehicle breakdown, bad weather etc.. These troubles usually come beyond the original distribution plan and even make the routing infeasible, which cause the negative affections in distribution system. Researchers focus on the problem of how to effectively deal with the disruptions in real time and make decision in the beginning and development of the disruption events in the disruption management.The distribution system includes subjects like distribution service supplier and its customers. It is crucial to balance the benefits between both sides and to generate optimal adjustment scheme with the least deviation. Furthermore, for the reason that there exits regularity in the disruption process of causing, developing, declining, terminating, it is a valuable issue to provide a methodology of handling disruptions in the time with disruption evolution for decision makers.The main researches in this paper are as follows:(1) Begin with the analysis of recovery disruption in distribution system, a mathematics model of delay time is set up. Then a metric model for time delay is presented with the concerning of the distribution service supplier and its customers, which provides decision maker quantitative metrics basis for tackling scheme decision method of recovery time delay disruption in distribution system.(2) In the consideration of the problem of tackling scheme decision method for recovery time delay disruption in distribution system, a multi stage decision method called sequential decision method is presented to solve the real time decision making problem in multi stage. Decision making steps is detailed in multi stage environment with the application of time delay metrics model.(3) The time delay disruption of gas distribution system in the north area of Dalian Distribution Center of China Petroleum Corporation is illustrated on the basis of sequential decision method to explain its feasibility.The sequential decision method, which deals with the time delay disruption, divides the delayed time in intervals based on the disruption regularity of causing, developing, declining, terminating. At the beginning of each stage, optimal scheme is chosen after all possible tacking scheme evaluated considering both subjects of distribution service supplier and its customers. This method resolves the real time decision making problem in the process of disruption, and provides the decision maker effective tool for practical distribution disruption management.