The Study Of The Model Of The Time To Activate The Contingency Plan Under Disruption

Emergencies always happen in recent years, the sudden occurrence has had a significant impact in social harmony and sustainable economic progress, at the same time, the incidents also posed a severe challenge to business management. Managers try to find the best coping strategies while facing the problems. The contingency plans play an important role in dealing with unexpected events.During disruptions, the activate time plays an important role in the mode of the disruption management, when to start the pre-disposal plan and main contingency plan is a key point in dealing with emergencies. In this paper, we mainly analyses the activating time of the contingency plan from two aspects. In the absence of duration of information about unexpected events, we constructed the plan to activate pre-disposal plans and contingency plans for the program using decision theory and methods by stages. More ever, we explore the problem that when the managers activate contingency plans under the disruptions with its loss is a function of time and the extend information of end time. In the absence of information of loss function about unexpected events, we constructed the plan to activate contingency plans for the program using decision theory and methods, and use the"competitive ratio"to explain the effectiveness of the program. On this base, further numerical analysis shows the importance of contingency plans.Based on the unpredictability and dynamic nature of the features of emergencies, given the contingency plan, we depict this nature of the incidents by setting up a good model; furthermore, the article also expands the application of online decision-making theory, and extends it into the area of emergency management.