On The Warning Forecast System In Chongqing's Urban Real Estate Industry

The real estate industry of China is now experiencing rapid progress .The government exercised a series of polices to prevent its over-heat development, but the reaction of different city to the same polices is very different. Based on the considerations, the purpose of this thesis is to establish an urban real estate early-warning system, in order to estimate the situation of urban real estate sector, insuring the health of the real estate industry.The main contents of the dissertation are: based on the extensive and thorough research on the latest development of an warning forecast system for real estate home and abroad and the analysis of traditional warning forecast systems for real estate,the dissertation creates an warning forecast system for real estate in Chongqing via the theory of a statistical warning forecast system. It includes: first, a cluster analysis is mainly used during the configuration of its index system; second, a system method is mainly used during the warning forecast partitioning of its index system; finally, it makes the warning forecast by combing the single index and overall evaluation of the warning forecast system for real estate. Based on the index figures of real estate markets of Chongqing from 1996 to 2006, the dissertation makes the warning forecast of real estate development of Chongqing through empirical research. It arrives at the conclusion that the overall development of real estate in Chongqing is undergoing a stable, healthy and rational phase in spite of a dramatic increase in 2005 and 2006, which just resulted from great demands and supplies of the market in stead of so-called real estate foam. At the end of the dissertation, it proposes the strategies for the healthy, stable and sustainable development of Chongqing real estate and the future of the warning forecast system for real estate.Moreover, the dissertation evaluates each phase and method of the warning forecast system for real estate, making a statistical warning system for Chongqing's circumstance and runs the system with the figures of Chongqing's real estate from 1996 to 2006.