| Natural gas is strategic investment concerning with national security. For quite a long time, our state has carried out strict planning control and management on natural gas investment yet ignored the risk prevention and research of natural gas project investment. Whereas, the overseas enterprises do have relatively mature theory concerning risk analysis and prevention of investments on natural gas project. This paper is mainly about specific analysis of risk classification, risk identification and relevant method, project risk estimation, project risk quantitative evaluation of investments on natural gas project, through an analysis of the background and content of investments on natural gas project and present situation of domestic and overseas research, then beginning with the fundamental research of natural gas project risk analysis, making a study of process in general of natural gas project risk management. Finally, it makes a specific analysis of Foshan Natural Gas Project investment risk and brings forth relevant precautionary measure and countermeasure by taking Foshan as an example.This paper makes an analysis of aforesaid contents in five chapters.Chapter I. Introduction. It mainly introduces the background and significance of natural gas risk research, besides, it makes a comparison of present situation of investment risk of domestic and overseas natural gas projects.Chapter II. It discourses on the concept and its feature of natural gas project investment risk according to the feature of investment on natural gas project. The major feature of natural gas project investment risk are: extensity of influencing factors, chronicity of construction, uncertainty of proceeds and complexity of budget etc., with regard to the crucial features stated as above different methods may be used to identify the risk of natural gas, and, seven major risk categories which are commonly seen are listed herein. They are mainly: natural gas risk, market risk, management risk, economic risk, policy risk, completion risk and other risks.Chapter III. It discourses the evaluation method of natural gas project risk. First of all, it analyses the source of natural gas project risk, which mainly includes the macro environment of investment decision of such projects, the trade where the project belong to and its condition; next, it analyses the quantitative evaluation method of natural gas project risk according to the source, which falls into risk quantification of certain project and that of uncertain project.Chapter IV. Taking Foshan Municipal Natural Gas Project as an example, it makes an analysis of natural gas project investment risk. First of all, it makes an introduction of the overall situation of the project, which includes the construction, investment and financing of project; next, it identifies the existing risks according to the investment situation of project and finally analyses and evaluates the overall risk of it.Chapter V. It brings forth measures and countermeasures ought to be taken against investment risk of Foshan Municipal Natural Gas Project from three aspects namely changing the nature of risk consequence, changing the probability of risk occurrence and changing the risk consequence by analyzing the crucial risk factors and based on the risk evaluation of Foshan Municipal Natural Gas Project. |
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