The Analysis On Status Of Chinese Grain Trade And Policy Choice

The Analysis on Status of Chinese Grain Trade and Policy ChoiceBased on the statistic data,actual analysis in the main part and according to the comparison between china and world in the output of grain,the present situation of the trade,it revealed a problem in Chinese grain trade:firstly,there is no any strength in the world grain market,in other words,no comparison advantage.Also there is a gap between Chinese and international market standard in the product quality. Therefore we face a strong dilemma about the product export.On the hand,pressure in the grain import is rising sharply because there is a growth in the grain import demand in china,and generating some anxious emotion in the grain safety.In addition,we can get a conclusion that we make full use of international market import and export in grain,participate in more activities positively,and adjust unfair in the domestic market as well to meet the domestic demand of growth under the Chinese grain self-sufficient balance according to the data analysis and demonstration about Chinese grain problem.The first part is data comparison--- the world and China food production,the trade present situation.In 2007,the world grain ultimate output estimate is 2.1012 billion tons, creates the historical highest record,grows 4.6%,the total crop growth mainly comes from the coarse edible grain,particularly US's corn in 2007.The Chinese grain ultimate output is 50.15 million tons,increasing 3.5 million tons than last year with up rate of 0.7%.The development of food production is in steady steps,reduced the same year grain production and demand gap,providing the solid foundation to safeguard the country food security.The world grain total volume of trade is 0.2521 billion tons,the amplitude contraction is 0.8%.The primary cause of trade deflation is the price top digit shake,in. addition the transport expense dramatic rise.In 2007,our country grain import total quantity is 32.37 million tons,the export total quantity is 10.32 million tons.And the total import quantity of the wheat,the rice,the corn is 1.55 million tons,the amplitude contraction is 56.7%;The export total quantity is 9.86 million tons,the increased range is 63.0%;The net import quantity is 8.31 million tons,the increased range is 236.4%,realizes continuously 3 year three big grain variety net import.Compared with last year,in 2007 the import total quantity of main grain had the varying degree to drop.The export total quantity,the net import quantity had the varying degree to grow,particularly the wheat export increased large scale.Having influence of the domestic soybean underproduction and increasing vegetable oil demand,in 2007 the soybean imports 30.82million tons, the increased range is 9.1%,the import volume creates new high record in the near 11 years.Soybean's massive import is the reason of our country grain net import.The second part carries on the Reveal Comparative Advantage theory to analyse the Chinese grain's international market competitive power.The Chinese grain trade's demonstration comparison superiority index is happy and worried at the same time analysing on data of 1995--2005,the rice demonstration comparison superiority is bigger than 1,corn's demonstration comparison superiority index basically is bigger than 1,but China's wheat's index is smaller than 1,soybean's index does not have the superiority.That is,in China food staples,the one which most has the comparison superiority is the rice,next is the corn,but the wheat and the soybean are in grain weak trend varieties.In brief,looking from 1990-2005 year variation situation,the Chinese soybean comparison superiority is losing;The wheat has not comparing superiority since long; The corn and the rice are Chinese traditional comparison superiority varieties,but its superiority assumes the declining trend.From this,Chinese trade policy of exporting corn and the rice,importing soybean and wheat,conforms to the Chinese grain comparison superiority condition.The third part is focus on the questions of Chinese grain trade's facing.First,the quality of Chinese exporting grain is not high,the international market often takes the limit by the environmental protection and others such as "the green barrier",but our agricultural product's quality and our examining quarantine level are not high,then become restrict for our country agricultural product export. Next,Chinese population increasing with the consumption pattern promotes to the grain import demand is getting more and more intense.Through the Chinese and foreign experts,the government apparatus as well as the Civil society organization draw the conclusion to the Chinese grain supply and demand situation's forecast:In the guarantee grain degree of self-sufficiency is under 95%premises,the pure dependence raises the grain per unit area yield level to enhance the grain ultimate output,or solved the Chinese grain supply and demand gap contradictory space already to be very small.Finally analyse security problem of Chinese grain food.The food security problem already obtained the Chinese government's care.The medical department has established food safety control system which basically adapts with the present stage. Chinese non-environmental damage agricultural product standard and food statute book committee announces food safety and health standard also has certain disparity. The Chinese overall food safety and health monitoring system and the developed country compare also have the very big disparity.The fourth part aims at the question which the Chinese grain trade facing, proposes the countermeasure choice.China should continue to take care of the food production,insisted that the reasonable grain degree of self-sufficiency,guarantees the Chinese grain supply and demand basic balanced;The government should increase agricultural the public investment,begins to implement the high quality grain industry project;Development grain trade physical distribution system,perfect enterprise grain do business system;The government should reduce the trade intervention moderately, full use domestic,international two market common adjustment;The perfect reserve system,the perfect grain transports the adjustment mechanism,sharpens the international grain emergency capability.