The Analysis Of Investment Risk In Changing The House Sites To Rooms In Dongli District Of Tianjin

The mode of changing the house sites to rooms, that is, under the condition of meeting the national land policy to ensure it does not reduce the total amount of cultivated land, improve housing of the masses, and keep the balance of funds ,carry out the new town construction. Specific model is to use loan funds for construction of the building in the new towns, let farmers replace their current homesteads with the newly-built housing in the new towns , and at last rehabilitate the area occupied by residence into arable land. new sites in residential construction left after the transfer is to let, with the land value-added income to repay the loan. Peri-urban areas of Tianjin city as the construction of the main contents of the project of changing the house sites to rooms will have a bearing on the success or failure of Tianjin Dongli District to achieve the strategic goal of urbanization.This paper here have conducted an in-depth study on the project investment risk of changing the house sites to rooms, the purpose of which is through investment analysis of the various risks to provide a reference for the project decision-makers.This paper also does a thorough study on the theory of risk identification, risk estimation, risk assessment and risk analysis and applies the risk analysis theory and methods to investment risk analysis for Tianjin Dongli District project of changing the house sites to rooms, and have a road test on the risk factors for the occurrence of probability and loss caused by the extent of the volume. In the calculation of risk assessment methods, this article using the TOPSIS method to sort the size of the various types of risk, and OFFICE EXCEL software to achieve the target results of the analysis.Dongli District, Tianjin homestead as a result of investment of changing the house sites to rooms huge investments from the loans, the proceeds of land compensation as the main source of loan, so the land in Tianjin will be the future price movements to determine the most direct projects loan-risk compensation. In this paper, give full consideration to the impact on the average price of land in various factors, predicts the future price of land in Tianjin during a certain period of time.After the full text of house sites in Tianjin Dongli District of changing the house sites to rooms project risk identification, risk estimation, risk assessment, risk response and predict the price of land in Tianjin, the existence of the project's main risks include resettlement housing design risk, project risk management, land rehabilitation risk, project bidding risk, material and energy supply risks, the risk of the project loan payments, financial risk and project financing in place the risk of 8 types of risk, combined with the actual proposed Dongli District risk aversion, risk transfer and risk mitigation strategies to deal with such risks.After Dongli District, Tianjin changing the house sites to rooms project risk analysis the following conclusions:Dongli District changing the house sites to rooms homestead resettlement housing project design, project management, land rehabilitation, project bidding, material and energy supply, the project loan outstanding, the availability of funds and project financing, there are certain aspects of the eight risk. But as long as the measures taken by the corresponding risk control, Dongli District changing house sites can be smoothly carried out.Short-term land prices in a downward trend. Another real estate due to the excessive expansion of the previous two years, the current real estate market and land a great stock, it will take some time to digest. These two factors will change the house sites of homestead land and land sale proceeds of the scale of a major constraint, thereby affecting the sale of land to benefit from loans.Project should be an accurate grasp of the main trend in real estate, to take active measures to deal with, can be appropriate to extend the homestead-change project cycle, implementation of a phased construction, the way the rolling development model, the short term to reduce the size of loans, as well as the expansion of the project area increased land area of response measures to avoid the risk of outstanding loans.