A Study On The Impact Of Changes In The RMB Exchange Rate On The Structure Of China's Export Trade To The United States

After the reform and opening up,China's RMB exchange rate system has undergone four changes.At the same time,the scale of trade between China and the United States has been expanded a lot,and the trade surplus with the United States also grew rapidly.What followed was an increasingly frequent trade friction with the United States.In 2018,the United States announced a tariff list for China's $250 billion exports to the United States,involving many industries such as electromechanical,automotive,and high-tech.China and the United States entered an unprecedented period of trade friction.In response to the negative impact of trade disputes on China's export trade,it is proposed to use the RMB exchange rate depreciation method to offset.In the background,the author explores the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's export trade structure with the United States.Firstly beginning with the existing research results at abroad and home,this paper summarizes and analyzes the influence of exchange rate on total trade,trade structure,and trade imbalance between China and the United States,and then determines the research direction and decides what kind of method to use in this paper.After that,a statistical description of the development of Sino-US trade between 1994 and 2018 and the exchange rate is conducted to preliminarily understand the relationship between exchange rate,total export volume and trade structure.Thirdly,monthly data from August 2005 to December 2018 were selected,and co-integration and VECM models were used for metrological analysis.The results show that the change of RMB exchange rate has little influence on China's total export trade to the United States,but it has different effects on the export of different factor endowment products.For electromechanical,automobile,furniture bedding lamps and high-tech products involving Sino-US trade disputes.The impact on the proportion of exports to the United States is also different.The depreciation of the renminbi has a strong role in promoting the export of labor-intensive products,and has no significant impact on the export of mechanical and electrical products to the United States,and has an inhibitory effect on the export of high-tech products.According to the empirical results,the author believes that the upgrading process of the industrial structure should be accelerated,support high value-added industries,and reduce the impact of exchange rate changes on the manufacturing industry.