Evaluation And Forecast On The Level Of Modernization Of Water Conservancy In Dalian City

Water is the foundation of the national economic and social development. Accelerating the modernization of water conservancy effectively will promote and safeguard China's comprehensively building a well-off society and realize the country's modernization. Modernization of water conservancy provides information for the water conservancy construction, economic and social development, utilization patterns and protection of the ecological environment. Dalian is a city lacking of water resources. Accelerating the modernization of water conservancy and using water resources rationally in Dalian city provide an important guarantee to achieve sustainable development of economic and society. Therefore, the research on Water modernization process, evaluation and prediction to correct water level of modernization in Dalian City is of great significance.This paper mainly studied the development of water conservancy in Dalian city and referred to the latest research achievements at home and abroad. Then the index system of a modern water conservancy evaluation was established, implemented analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weight and the variable fuzzy sets theory to evaluate the development of the water conservancy in Dalian city. The evaluation results were high reliability and stability. The water conservancy of Dalian city leveled two and the level of the modern water conservancy maintained medium. The process of modernization of water conservancy basically adapted to situation of the economic development. In order to avoid subjective factors affecting the results of the evaluation, Projection Pursuit (PP) method also was applied to assess the level of modernization of water conservancy in Dalian city. Evaluation results show that the level of modernization of water conservancy is always increasing from 2003 to 2006. Based on the scientific evaluation, the Grey theory was implemented to forecast the development of the modern water conservancy. Forecasting results show that, by 2010, Dalian city basically enter into the stage of the modern water conservancy. Lately, the strategies of the modern water conservancy of Dalian city were discussed. The results had important reference value on the construction of the water conservancy and the efficient use of the water resources, which to some extent was also as the reference to similar research.