Research On The Influences Of Population Aging On Economic Development In Shandong Province

Population aging is the trend of the human society development. It has an effect on the social economy, especially on the labor force and the consumer industrial structure and the economic growth. The problem of population aging in Shandong Province is becoming increasingly obvious. Acceleration of the aging process has had a huge influence to the social economy development. Population aging has become one of the most serious challenge which socio-economic development faces in Shandong Province. In this way, this article carefully analyzes the major effect factor and the trend of population aging development in view of demography, explores the economic effect of population aging from economic perspective, and finally gives some advice to deal with the population challenge, taking the scientific development concept as the guiding principle.First,this thesis makes many kinds of population projections according to the different fertility rate and the mortality rate for current and future, and carries on the special analysis for the different demand according to its forecasting result, decomposes theirs difference into the fertility rate and the mortality rate to the population age structure function. Through the generalized analysis of two-stage forecasting results, we can see that the decline in mortality rate replaced by changes in fertility rate has become main factor of speeding up the development of population aging in Shandong Province. For a long-term, the decline in mortality rate will gradually substitute for the change in fertility rate into a main factor for population age structure in Shandong Province in the future.Then,thisthesis sets up high, medium and low three kinds of prediction programs according to the reasonable parameter supposition, forecasts population data of city and countryside in the future with the population development equation of multi-region dispersion. On the base of prediction data, we forecasts the trend of population aging through calculating targets, such as quantity, structure, sex ratio, foster ratio, distribution and so on. Then we discover the following characteristic of population aging process in the Shandong Province: Firstly, before 2035, population aging in Shandong Province is in the accelerating period, the entire province will enter a phase of severe aging in 2017.Nextly, the population aging process in rural areas will be much faster than that in urban areas. Thirdly, in the coming 20 years, Shandong Province will be in the period of low foster ratio called"the opportunity window", in which we can quickly develop economics. There will be the most critical period on population aging situation in 2036-2050 years. Finally, the advanced age process will be progressively impelled, and showed that the countryside is more serious than the cities. Finally,this thesis mainly focuses on population aging's influence in some respect of the region's GDP, savings, consumption, pension burden and medical expense of the old age community .The research finds out that: at this stage, if we raise fertility rate in order to suppress population aging, output increase will be hindered. Along with the aging degree's deepening, the savings ratio initial period elevates, and afterward drops; population aging has an impact on the consumption level, the expense scale and the consumption pattern. Population aging raises the level of household consumption expenditure, and changes the structure of consumption demand, it definitely shows that expends for the basic means of livelihood from quantity satisfied to the quality enhanced ,and the growth of healthcare disbursement and the consumption of education cultural entertainment service ; the pension payment rate Under the partial fund accumulation system is lower than that under the PAYGO system in the future; the main factor influenced the fast increasing of the elderly population's medical needs is population aging, old age crowd's medical expense will grow quickly during 2010-2030 year.This thesis brings forth new ideas on the follows: take advantage of population development equation to analyze the main effect factor; forecasts the trend of population aging in Shandong Province's city and countryside, and make an econometric model of the population aging. Establishing the Computable General Equilibrium to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of population aging in Shandong Province is a new direction in the further exploration.