The Future Trend Of Ageing Population In Yunnan Province And The Research On Economic Development And Medical Expenditure Impact

As the population aging phenomenon becoming more serious, ageing on our country’s economic and social development has a significant influence, aging problem has therefore become one of the hot topic in academic circles at home and abroad. So far, the study of population ageing in China already has some scattered research results. But now the research of population ageing in Yunnan province is less, and most are qualitative analysis. For this, the paper applied statistics theory and method, system analysis the future trend of population aging in Yunnan province, and emphasis on the influence of population aging on economic development and the medical expenses in Yunnan province. The research provides reference for the government to solve the problem of future population aging in Yunnan province.In this paper, the main research contents include:(1) Based on census data from1995to2012in Yunnan province, this paper descriptive analysis the current situation of aging population in Yunnan province, and then respectively with Leslie population forecast model, the Logistic function model and GM (1,1) model in fitting, according to the model prediction error rate for model choice, thus using optimal model to make reasonable forecast. We know that:an ageing population problem is increasingly serious in Yunnan province, over65elderly population proportion will be increased from7.64%in2010to9.94%in2020.(2) Based on Yunnan province from1995to2012, over65elderly population proportion and GDP per capita data, using the cubic polynomial time series model to analyze the future economic development in Yunnan province, and then borrow almon polynomial hysteresis model to analyze the influence of population aging on economic development in Yunnan province. The results showed that: the future GDP per capita in Yunnan province will continue to increase, but the future growing problem of an ageing population will have a great effect on its, and have a thorough knowledge of the lag effect.(3) For the correlation of an ageing population and the medical expense growth in Yunnan province, this paper uses Cointegration test and Error Cor-rection Model to study. We clearly know:there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth in yunnan province, or an ageing popu-lation, or government spending on health care and the total health care cost in our province. Among them, the government spending on health care is one of the most important influence factors of the growth of total health care cost in Yunnan province.