The Forecasting Of Xi'an Metro Traffic And Economic Analysis Of Operations

With the development of urbanization and motorization of Xi'an,the city associated with more severe "disease".EspeciaUy that the traffic problem has become the most serious problem of all levels of government and the public.Although the road in Xi'an has improve a lot,but relying on the construction of the road is difficult to cure "Traffic Disease".At present,the Government has concentrated their attention to urban rail system.As public transport,it has more advantages such as the great capacity and speed,and good safety performance.These advantages make it an issue of resolving the Xi'an traffic preferences.In this paper,the author select Four-Stage Prediction Method,which is widely used both at home and abroad,to predict the Xi'an Metro line short-term traffic flowing. Prediction process can be described as follows:divided Xi'an into 13 districts according to the natural areas,based on travel survey of residents and thedata of field survey,the author use the linear regression model and the SPSS software to forecast the travel flowing;to predict OD year based on the present OD in Xi'an,through the traffic mode split,traffic will be assigned to various modes of transportation road network,the Metro of Xi'an end of the short-term line of the volume of passenger flow forecasting.The forecast traffic for the Metro line in Xi'an planning has an important significance on the 2nd line of the investment and operating costs depend primarily on the basis of traffic forecasts to determine the size of the system;In addition,the accurate prediction of traffic can be completed on the 2nd line after the opening of the operating effectiveness of the results of measurement and calculation to support this article in detail in Chapterâ…£analysis;Similarly,traffic on the 2nd line results can be used as the operational phase of the development of management programs the basis of the decision-making, which not only affect the operation at a later stage on the 2nd line of the fare changes, affecting the same level of service changes and other changes in the operating organization.Rail transit is the non-profit project.In operation stage we should not only take their economic interests into account,but also the affordability of citizen.The chapterâ…£study the rail transportation of the economic benefits of post-operation analysis, pointed out that late on the 2nd line of the composition of operating income,to explore the development of effective space,not only on the 2 line will enable the development of more comprehensive,but also to reduce the pressure on the Government.For these,the paper has strong practical.