Research On Diffusion Mechanism Of Emergency In Supply Chain

Recently, the application of Lean production, JIT and development of globalization improve efficiency and reduce cost; but meanwhile they make the whole supply chain system more vulnerable and enterprises more dependable on each other. This leads that once any emergency happens on a single network node (Enterprise) or line (transportation), it will impact related supply chain members quickly, even though other nodes on the net. Based on this it is very important to research emergencies in supply chain. This paper studies the diffusion mechanism of emergencies in supply chain. It focuses on the cause, process and character of emergency diffusion in supply chain; as well as the diffusion time and strength emergency diffusion will take. At last some suggestions and advices are given based on analysis above.This paper is divided into four parts including seven chapters. Each part's content is as follows:PartⅠincludes the first chapter and the second chapter. The first chapter is the introduction of the whole paper, and the second chapter is the literature review. Chapter one introduces the background and significance of the study, and then demonstrates the framework and innovation of the paper; Chapter two reviews the current study of risk conduction and emergency diffusion from three point: conception, management theory and conduction (or diffusion) mechanism.PartⅡis the main body of this paper and includes three chapters: theory basis, macro-frame model and micro-models of diffusion time and strength of emergency in supply chain. Chapter three defines the concept of emergency and emergency diffusion, and then research their character and classification. At the end of the chapter, three theories are summed up to explain the diffusion mechanism; Chapter four first gives three basic models: system model, causal model and diffusion model of Emergency. Then concept"Energy vector"is used to explain the Function Attribute of node in system model and the Dynamic model of Emergency Diffusion in Supply Chain; At last, chapter five discusses diffusion time and strength of emergency in linear supply chain and supply chain net.PartⅢis about countermeasures against emergency in supply chain based on the research above, including the establishment of an effective emergency-identification and assessment method; a reliable early-warning and monitoring system; supply chain system redesign and cooperation between enterprises.PartⅣis the summary of the whole paper. First it summarizes the main research conclusion, and then demonstrates the future directions.The innovation of this paper can be summed up as:Introduction of emergency factor, as well as inducing (or disturbing) factor. Based on these concepts, system model, causal model and diffusion model of Emergency are proposed; the proposal of Energy vector. This concept is put forward for the character of node including energy, energy Threshold and the nature of energy, as well as the description of dynamic process of emergency.Impact of emergency in linear supply chain is extended from two-stage to multistage, meanwhile the objective contains not only the increase of raw material's price brought by emergency, but also the decrease of supply and increase of end demand. In supply chain network, parameters of fixed profit ratio and cost component are introduced to analyze how some of the raw materials'price increases will affect the lower nodes'pricing.