Research On Prediction Methods Of Ro-Ro Terminal Throughput

The advantages of Ro-Ro transportation-strong professional, largetransport bulk, low breakage rate, low freight and no pollution, whichgradually attracts the attention from the traditional methods transportation.However, the domestic Ro-Ro transportation is generally faced with theproblems such as low load factor and bad storage utilization, the onwardcapacity and return capacity is imbalance, which results in an artificiallyhigh transportation cost at present, so that the profit of Ro-Ro transport fleetis very low, even minus.Predicting the throughput Ro-Ro terminals and planning cargoaccording to its fluctuating law can help alleviate the problems of lowcapacity utilization and high cost to a certain extent. This article firstintended to fit the Ro-Ro terminal throughput by time sequence predictionmethod, gray system forecast method and correlation analysis model, andthen build out the combination forecast model based on these three singleforecasting methods to improve the predictive accuracy of Ro-Ro terminal.Through empirical analyzing the throughput of Shanghai HaitongInternational Automotive Port and Guangzhou Nansha Automotive Port, theeffectiveness and accuracy of the combination forecast model is verified,thus proving the combination forecast model is suitable for those volatilepredictions that have complex factors data.Furthermore, the research of Ro-Ro terminal throughput is expandedto the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region as the hinterlandof the Ro-Ro terminal, targeted adjusting or changing the prediction model,hoping for the development and benefits of regional automobile industryand economic predictions. After the analysis of the actual data, this article do find that consideration based on the whole hinterland is more scientific,practical and realistic than that only based on the influence factors of citywhere the Ro-Ro terminal locates.It is proved obviously that a port does not only reflect the cargothroughput and economic development of the city, but also represents thesituations and strengths of the entire covered economic hinterland,developing the port logistics can drive the economic development of theport city and the surrounding hinterland provinces and cities. The moredeveloped the hinterland economy is, the more frequently the economicrelations become, the larger the port transportation demand is, whichpromote the scale expansion and structure evolution. Stronginterdependence and mutual promotion relationship between port and porthinterland is of great significance to the research of port hinterland andregional economic development.