Empirical Study On The Effect Factors Of Guangdong Province's Export Trade

This study took our biggest province-Guangdong as object to analyze the factors that affect its exports.At first,theoretical analysis were used to analyze the reason which produces international trade.Then this paper made a general analysis to Guangdong Province's export trade separately from the aspects of trade total quantity, the type of trading,the structure of export commodities,the export market structure and the export economic type,and then made a theoretical analysis to the influence factors of Guangdong province's export trade from the international aspect,the domestic aspect and the uncertainty aspect.On the foundation of theoretical analysis, combining with Guangdong province's practical condition,this paper made empirical analysis of important factors on Guangdong province's export trade by using Guangdong' annual data between 1985-2007.The methods used in this paper were ADF test,E-G test and ECM test.The result showed that Guangdong province's import,FDI,companionate countries' GDP and export rebate have a long term remarkable influence on Guangdong' exports.In a short term,the change of these factors also influenced the change of export evidently.At last,this paper proposed some short policy suggestions based on these factors.