| As a world-famous tourist country,Thailand’s factors affecting its inbound tourism demand may be quite different from those of other developed countries.Based on the perspective of external shocks,this study first systematically sorts out and classifies the relevant literatures that affect the elasticity of inbound tourism demand in Thailand.Then,based on the tourism demand theory,this paper makes a long-term and short-term overall and regional empirical analysis on the elasticity of inbound tourism demand in Thailand by using the data of different external shocks in different countries/regions from 2000 to 2019.On this basis,taking the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 as an external shock,this paper discusses the influencing factors of tourists’ tourism risk perception,tourism destination image,tourists’ perceived value,tourists’ satisfaction and destination loyalty on Thailand’s inbound tourism demand will through questionnaire data.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: First of all,different inbound tourism markets in Thailand have different sensitivities to Thai tourism prices.The change of substitution price affects the competitiveness of destination,and the elasticity of substitution price reflects the sensitivity of tourists to the change of destination competitiveness,which is mainly manifested in substitution effect and complementary effect.Compared with price elasticity and income price,alternative price elasticity is more complicated,and force majeure factors such as economy and nature have a greater impact on Thailand’s inbound tourism demand.Secondly,for different market segments of Thailand’s tourism,tourism prices have different demand elasticity for local inbound tourism,and for different source countries of Thailand’s inbound tourism,there are also differences in long-term tourism demand elasticity and short-term tourism demand elasticity.In the long run,tourists from some source countries have a high elasticity of demand for tourism in Thailand,while the elasticity of demand for tourism in some source countries may be insignificant or relatively inelastic.The reason behind this is that for tourists in different market segments,the exclusivity of traveling to Thailand is significantly different.In terms of alternative price elasticity,the long-term elasticity of alternative price in exporting countries remains positive,indicating that tourists from exporting countries regard Thailand’s competitive tourist destinations as alternative choices for Thai tourism.The substitution price of the originating country is significantly negative,which shows that the originating destination of tourists tends to visit Thailand and Thailand’s competitive destinations at the same time,and there is a complementary effect.Thirdly,Thailand’s inbound tourism destination image,tourists’ perceived value,tourists’ satisfaction and destination loyalty are all positively related to Thailand’s inbound tourism demand will,and tourism risk perception is negatively related to Thailand’s inbound tourism demand will.At the same time,the demand elasticity of inbound tourism in Thailand is characterized by large fluctuations due to external shocks.The innovations of this paper mainly include: First,there is some innovation in the application of theoretical methods.By using the relevant theoretical methods and models of econometrics,sociology,statistics,geography and tourism,this paper deeply analyzes the development of demand elasticity of inbound tourism in Thailand when it is subjected to external shocks,comprehensively and systematically studies the relationship between inbound tourism in Thailand and external shocks,and the pulling effect of tourism,and draws some meaningful conclusions.Secondly,using econometric research methods comprehensively,according to the different constraints of regional economic development level and tourism specialization,different tourist destinations in Thailand are classified and differentiated.In-depth study on the interaction between the evolution of inbound tourism in Thailand and external shocks,including short-term and long-term income elasticity,price elasticity and alternative price elasticity.On the basis of considering the transmission mechanism of tourism and external shocks in neighboring areas,this paper uses error correction model,structural equation and correlation test to construct a econometric model of elastic influencing factors,and quantifies the elastic strength and direction of tourism subjected to external shocks.Third,the research perspective is innovative.In this paper,the elastic factors are introduced into the long-term and short-term impact analysis of inbound tourism in Thailand,and the index evaluation and model are constructed.Tourism is an industry significantly influenced by geographical location and spatial scale,and the development of inbound tourism is closely related to spatial distance.Incorporating error correction factors into the analysis model can comprehensively understand the internal and external elastic mechanism of tourism under economic shocks,and provide a new perspective for understanding the evolution trend of regional economic disparities.Fourthly,the practical management suggestions put forward are innovative.From a realistic point of view,this study considers the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on Thailand’s tourism industry,and calculates the differential spillover effect of Thailand’s inbound tourism under different external shocks by constructing a econometric model.A random questionnaire survey was conducted before and after the epidemic,and the samples of the questionnaire survey before and after the epidemic were compared and analyzed by using the structural equation model,revealing the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on Thailand’s international inbound tourism demand. |
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