Study On Potential Evaluation Of Cultivated Land Intensive Use

Cultivated land is a scarce resource, which play a vital role in the national economy and is the foundation of the national economy. Cultivated land issue relates to a country's food security, social stability, the rise and fall of the regime and the ecological environment quality, the growing importance of its strategic position. China's economy practice of building for decades to tell us: the food will stability if cultivated land (quantity and quality) is stable, moreover the economic and national will stability too. Can be seen, the cultivated land has become to an important factor to maintain social stability and national security in the regime. At present, the main issues of China's cultivated land use facing that: dramatic shortage of cultivated land resources and the increasingly prominent of "bottleneck" effect; serious waste of land resources due to extensive and exacerbate the "bottleneck"( overt and stealth abandon abandonment, disorderly growth of construction land); the soil ecological environment is very fragile overall, and trend to deteriorating (soil erosion, land Stalinization, desertification, desertification, the continued deterioration of the ecosystem of farmland, forest and grassland ecosystem degradation); regional distribution of land use is not reasonable, the low efficiency of land use and misunderstanding of the awareness of land use efficiency. The main way to solve this problem is changing land use patterns. China's land use has been in a relatively extensive, so this contradiction among economic,resources and population can be resolved by raise the level of intensive use of land, that is the use of intensive management model.We scientifically definite the connotations of the intensive use and potential based on the previous research: through the use of advanced technology equipment and measures, we can improve the measures of labor,machinery,fertilizers,electricity,technology and government attaches on limited cultivated land resources, enhance the utilization of cultivated land, increase the output of cultivated land and achieve the maximize of cultivated land use and outputs, then reach the best-intensive use of cultivated land; The potential of intensive is the gaps between utilization of cultivated land and the best intensive use of cultivated land; moreover its realization process is the intensive use of cultivated land. Identify the target of Intensive potential evaluation, choose a series of evaluation indexes, apply the method which combinative with subjective and objective to select the indexes(Delphi Method selection—Coefficient of variation screening indicators —select the indexes based on correlation analysis and cluster analysis), Ultimately, determine the index system of evaluation of the intensive use of cultivated land potential, it scientifically and reasonably reflects the intensive use of cultivated land。And the paper applies the method that combinative with subjective and objective, uses the method of sub-level analysis and principal component analysis to determine the indexes weight scientifically and reasonably.Put forward a "reasonable value of the evaluation model", the model can be used by a area of complex social, economic and natural conditions for quantitative measuring potential, this model can use the relations between a reasonable value and Status value and establish the same evaluation criteria, this make the evaluation results of different types zoning comparable, and indicate the spatial differences in a research zoning which has a number of types of zoning. In the study, because of the specificity of cultivated land, different cultivated land zoning have different reasonable values, so macro-scale evaluation of the potential for intensive use of cultivated land in the absence of uniform standards, we should choose specific programs based on the actual situation Therefore, the skilled experts'advance is very important in process of selecting the reasonable value, at the same time, this method has an important Guiding role for determining the reasonable value of the intensive use of arable land potential in the future. This research on the basis of Agricultural Land Classification in Hebei Province, and zoning by County, using the "reasonable value of the evaluation model" to calculate the relative and absolute potential of intensive use of cultivated land in Hebei Province, then expressing the distribution of intensive use of cultivated land in space. The Features of relative potential is that northern more than southern, area of mountain plateau more than plain area, and the Bashang hilly area is greatest, this similar to the distribution of Intensive utilization; The best potential of the cultivated land in different zoning throughout the different characteristics; The region that the absolutely potential is greater are mainly located in low-yielding fields of Cangzhou, Hengshui, however the Bashang plateau and mountain and hilly region are lower. Through experts'demonstration, it is in line with the actual situation. Through the empirical Study, it demonstrates the correctness of the model.Based on the analysis of the potential results of intensive use of cultivated land in Hebei Province, we find the main factor which effect potentiality developing: Bad effects of the output of cultivated land, there is a large gap between the realistic yield and the largest yield in most areas, especially in plain area; the degree of intensive use in mountain hilly area is not high, especially are cultivation index and the mechanization rate; input level is overall higher in Hebei Province, but the distribution is uneven, in plain areas input is more, the utilization rate is low, the Input level of Hilly and mountainous plateau area is smaller.In this study, we use scientific method, try to calculate the reasonable value of the intensive use evaluation of cultivated land, break the situation which the intensive use potential of cultivated land is only a qualitative analysis, and make quantitative evaluation for the intensive use potential in the macroscale firstly, the evaluation results matches practical case, this verifies the correctness of the evaluation model, provides evidence for quantitative study of Intensive use potential of cultivated land...