Research On Growth Model And Forecast Of Freight Volume Of Logistics Park Based On Concentric Zone Theory

With social development and rapid urbanization, fast economic development has brought huge logistics demand. As a result, many cities reorient to be a logistics center and logistics park construction has achieved high-speed development. In planning and building of a logistics park, its scale has direct relations to location selection, boundary delimitation and connections with the city where it is and so on. As logistics demand is the decisive factor to scale of a logistics park, freight volume growth pattern and forecast of the logistics park are getting more important.The methods for partitioning logistics park hinterland that are often used at present are administrative division method and economic region method. Although these methods are easier to partition hinterland areas, they can not reflect contribution of different areas to park development. By introducing Concentric Zone Theory that is the new theoretical success of the Economical Geography into partitioning hinterland, a model for partitioning logistics park hinterland based on Concentric Zone Theory is established in the paper, which makes hinterlands partition more scientific and data-measuring. Through analysis on characteristics of industrial structure of different layers, freight volume growth patterns of a logistics park are mainly divided into two types: inner-layer leading type and outer-layer leading type. At the same time, according to data structure of different layers, corresponding freight volume prediction model is also established, which makes prediction results more scientific and reasonable. At last, a practical example analysis of Bohai Newly Developed Zone is carried out. With the research foundations of some scholars and introduction of some new methods, this paper goes on some beneficial explorations to construct a complete system of logistics park freight volume forecast.