Research On Forecasting Of The Optimum Freight Volume Of Logistics Park Based On Concentric Zone

With China's economy having entered a stage of New Normal,the logistics industry is facing new opportunities and challenges.Meanwhile,the logistics park usher in a new development opportunity.State and local governments at all levels also have introduced various favorable policies,to develop logistics park scientifically has become local governments' important measures to promote economic development.On planning and construction of the logistics park,the size of optimum freight volume is directly related to Logistics Park's location,relationship between city carrier and hinterland of Logistics Park.Predicting the optimum freight volume of logistics park accurately has become one of the key questions of developing and operating logistics park successfully in that optimum freight volume is the decisive factor of the logistics park scale.On the basis of summarizing the optimum freight volume of logistics park,this paper discusses the optimum freight volume of logistics park from the perspective of hierarchy,scope and principles and reasonably analyses the factors which affect the optimum freight volume of logistics park.Based on analyzing the hinterland division,the theory of circle and its extending theory,this paper establishes a hinterland circle division model by applying the location quotient.Therefore,we can divide the circle of the hinterland of logistics park into core circle,close circle and radiation circle.Aiming at the data features of the various circle of logistics park hinterland,this paper establishes the adaptive prediction model to make the prediction of the hinterland of logistics park more reasonable and scientific.This paper make an empirical analysis by taking Yibin's Xiangbi Logistics Park as an example,the logistics volume of the various circle of Yibin hinterland and the logistics volume of Yibin is forecasted.Considering the industry structure,leading industry and other economic characteristics in each circle of the hinterland of Yibin,this paper analyzes variation tendency of each circle.Furthermore,this paper calculates the share rate of Yibin's Xiangbi Logistics Park in Yibin's logistics volume through establishing the index evaluation system of traffic condition index and construction condition index,applying the Topsis model,and using the proximity as the evaluation value of competitiveness.Eventually,we can calculate the optimum freight volume of Yibin's Xiangbi Logistics Park according to the share rate.The optimum freight volume of logistics park is scientifically and reasonably forecasted applying the concentric zone theory,it will play an important guiding role in planning,operation and management of logistics park.