The Research On Early Warning Of The Owner Risk Of The Expressway Project During Construction Period

Expressway project is a systems engineering effectied by many factors such as conomic, social, people and natural factors. The construction of China's expressway has been development rapidly since reform and opening up. But with the scale of the construction of expressway projects increasing, investment increasing, the construction environment has become increasingly sophisticated and expressway construction risks are increasingly complex and difficult to control. Risk management techniques should be used by the owner to analyze and decide risks comprehensively, integratedly, systemicly, determine a reasonable time to alert for the risk, improve the accuracy of risk prediction, draw up the correct risk pre-controlling programs, enhance awareness of risk prevention, response and resolve the risks timely and effectively, reduce the risk loss and lower construction costs, which are of great significance to the expressway construction and the investment returns.Based on checking a large number of domestic and international research on project risk early warning, and the latest developments about the early warning indicators and early warning models of project risk, the structure of decomposition of risk, risk assessment model, the risk early warning indicators and risk early warning models are researched in this thesis. Accordance with the characteristics of the owner risk of the expressway project during construction period, every risk and its factors are analyzed and identified, then risk breakdown structure is determined. After comparing with the advantages and disadvantages of each method, the risk matrix method with a little quantified is selected to evaluate the risk. Guided by the principles of the risk early warning indicators, the risk early warning indicator system of the owner risk of the expressway project during construction period is established, which the main risks that the owner facing during construction period are summed up comprehensively in. Catastrophe theory early warning model is built to evaluate the early warning indicators. Comparing early warning results with the threshold, different warning signals are issued to remind the owner of pre-controlling risk effectively. Finally, Guangdong Jiang-Zhu Expressway is taken as an example to analyze and verify the accuracy of indicators, methods and models in the thesis. At the same time, the specific pre-controlling and controlling measures of the risk of expressway project during construction period are proposed.At present, researches on early warning of the owner risk of the expressway project during construction period are less. In this thesis, the past research on the risk of early warning has been effectively integrated to use and a more comprehensive risk early warning indicator system and a precise risk early warning model are established, which is proposed to provide a theoretical reference for the owner and manager of expressway project.