Study On The Prediction Of Total Area Of Farmland In Yingkou City

Rapid economic development will lead to urban construction land area's growth, and at the same time the growing population will increases the demand of farmland based on food security. Under these dual pressures , the work of farm land protection is facing a severe situation. Continued decreasing in farmland resources of China's will cause a serious threat to food security and social stability and the maintenance of biological diversity. Constitutes the coordination of farmland protection and socio-economic development of the premise of both is to study the reasonable amount of farmland, and then make co-ordination arrangements with other types of land.As an important coastal port city in Liaoning Province, Yingkou City is located in the middle of the "five points-one line" strategy region. Yingkou City's rapid economic development is in the early stages, During this particular period, there is an urgent need to make a scientific prediction of the total area of farmlan in the future, which is of great practical significance to farmland protection programs, and to Yingkou's economic, social and ecological sustainable development of the environment. In addition, this kind of basic work has a direct guiding significance in the land use planning, land management and farmland protection.Based on the analysis of the specific circumstances of Yingkou City, total population, the first industrial output, grain sown area, grain yield, GDP, fixed asset investment, urbanization, capita public green area per indivadual,and green coverage area in built-up area 9 indicators is selected.These indicators were made correlation analysis with the totoal area of farm land. It was found that these indicators has a strong correlation relationship with the totoal area of farm land. Among these, envirionmental factors'relationship is the strongest, and the poorest is the social factor.In order to build a model between these factors and the totoal area of farmland, this paper then used the volume index of the totoal area of farm land. We build a model with the volume index. And with the use of existing data and the model, we calculated a sequence data of the volume index in the past decade. This process also validated the mode. The use of regression analysis method, combined with the characteristics of Yingkou city, we make predictions of all the facyors and the volume index in the next round of planning period. Finally, use of models to predict the totoal area of farmland in the next round of planning period.Yingkou City in 2010 is expected to retain the amount of farm land for 111291.94hm2, 2020 was 110982.16hm2. Overall, Yingkou City's totoal area of farm land is remaining , This conclusion is consistent with the national policy of farmland protection, but also make a progress in theory basis of farmland protection and land use planning.