The Study On The Effect Of Involving Of The Price Of Petroleum On National Economy

The Petroleum as non-renewable resources plays an irreplaceable role in the international economy. The price of petroleum in 2008 had once again refresh the historical highest price, and in mid-July reached a record high of＄1.47 per barrel, followed by sharp decline, fell to＄40 a barrel in the end of 2008. With the rapid growth of the national economy in China, the demand of petroleum is increasing rapidly, and domestic petroleum production growth lags behind the demand growth rate. China's petroleum imports rate increased rapidly. And with our domestic prices of petroleum forming system becoming more and more rational, the national economy influence of the international petroleum price will become more and more obvious. Petroleum processing industry is in the upstream of national economy, so every work of life are directly or indirectly affected by the petroleum industry. Thus further study the influence of international petroleum, and find out some effective strategies to ensure national economic develops rapidly, stably and sustainable have the important practical significance.Using the 1992, 1997 and 2002 input-output table compiled the input-output table of petroleum processing industry, and on the basis of using the method of RAS processed the 2007 petroleum direct consumption coefficients, and using the direct economic contribution index, completely economic contribution index, the direct consumption coefficients and indirect cost coefficient, influence factor and degree of induction coefficient of national economic the thesis analyzed the overall economic contribution and influence, emphatically analyzed the influence of petroleum industry and how other industries affected by it.The third chapter analyzed the influence factors of international petroleum price, using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of time series model for the 2009 international petroleum price trend forecast. The result tells us that in 2009 the international petroleum price for an average of $69.9 a barrel, below the average level in 2008. Then using the model quantities the prices changes of other industry because of that of petroleum industry, and based on this, carried on the empirical analysis.Finally, the paper proposed preventing prices shake short-term and ensuring the confidence of consumer, Establish national strategic petroleum reserve and actively increase domestic petroleum field exploration, put improving energy conservation and efficiency in the first place, relying on science, implementing the strategy of sustainable development, Effective use of various resources, developing alternative resources to reduce the international petroleum price crisis.