The Research On The Determination Of Urban Taxi Number

Compared to developed countries, the taxi industry in China started relatively late, but with the rapid development of the national economy and people's living standards greatly improved, the taxi quickly occupied a certain place of the city passenger transport market because of its features of high-speed, convenience, comfort, security and a wide range service, and the demand has also increased rapidly. However, if the development of the taxi number is not limited, then it will lead to low operating profits, instability of industry, waste of the road traffic resources, urban traffic congestion, energy consumption, pollution, the excess capacity in future and many other issues. So an appropriate taxi number in the city is the premise that can ensure optimized allocation of resources, the healthy and orderly development as well as coordinated development of the urban public transportation system. But what is the appropriate taxi number? It is a question need to research clearly on these issues: what stages is the development of urban passenger transportation at, what are the factors that can impact the taxi number, what is the status quo of the taxi industry, after that an appropriate method can be found out to determine the taxi number.First of all, this dissertation summarizes the domestic and foreign research on the taxi number, makes the definition of taxi, analyses the characteristics of the taxi as well as its status and role in urban passenger transport system, analyses its development trend combined with a current stage position of the urban passenger transport in China; Secondly, the dissertation finds out the key factors that can impact the taxi number, analyses the mechanisms of these factors; Then analyses existing achievements, summarizes existing methods that determine the taxis amount, makes an evaluation and selection among them. With the example of Chengdu, the dissertation selects supply and demand balance method and statistical regression method from different points of view, improves the statistical regression method and changes it into principal component regression method, makes principal component analysis and calculation with SPSS software; At last uses the combination forecasts method (Integrate the two different predicting results by method of weighted sum) to determine the taxi number in Chengdu. In this dissertation, the methods that combining substantial evidence with living example, qualitative with quantitative, home with external, theory with practice, experience with analysis and so on are applied, which increases the extent of the use of the method, thus provides a theoretical basis for the government to put in. the taxi capacity.