Demand Forecasting And Quantity Regulation Of City Taxi

With the development of economic,in recent years,more and more people increase requirement of going out, the city taxicab is famous for its speed、 comfortable and privacy,which is selected by more and more people.At the same time, to improve the transportation network, to speed up the construction of urban economic prosperity and promote international exchanges are made a positive contribution.But, each region "driver low income","the driver overfatigue work","black car run rampant","taking a taxi difficult" frequently appeared, namely whether let the taxi number as demand increases unceasingly, or forced quantity to ease traffic congestion, will affect the healthy development of the city taxi industry. Therefore, reasonable taxi number trend prediction is to guarantee the city taxi industry resource allocation optimization and continuous benign development and formulate reasonable urban traffic congestion policy premise. How to analysis the reasonable vehicles quantity prediction, it needs to study urban taxi development situation, the influence factors of reasonable taxi number, and to seek appropriate method to determine the city taxi number development trend.This thesis first analysis and interpretation the industry contradiction from three square,they are the city taxi industry supply and demand both and regulators; Combined with the literature review three aspects, i.e., the taxi demand, urban traffic congestion management and taxi access regulation,try to find the relationship between the industry supply and demand imbalance and the relationship; Make an analysis of cities development status and vehicle development phase, summary influence factors of taxis.With the actual data of dalian as an example, through the principal component analysis and improvement of exponential smoothing method to forecast dalian city taxi demand trend; Will a taxi speed factors considered in prediction, constructing the multi-objective programming model, from two aspects of supply and demand of urban taxi reasonable quantity forecast; Finally,with the two kinds of prediction method considering together Given traffic congestion management policy and the city taxi reasonable quantity.This thesis based on the empirical and case analysis, combining quantitative and qualitative analysis phase the research method of combining literature research in related fields at home and abroad were summarized as the foundation, do the combining theory with practice, experience and innovation, integrating the empirical, standard and countermeasures study combined, emphasizes the study of the actual utilization. Provide the government department a theoretical basis for the city taxi capacity and traffic congestion management.