Study On Food Security Problem In China Based On System Dynamics

Since ancient times, grain production is the most basic activities of production for human survival and development, and food security is the specific performance to meet the human needs of food production. The issue of food security has been associated with food production existed in the historical process of human society. Since the 1970s, the world's food crisis gave rise to the human concern and the focus of the study. China is a large agricultural country with a population of 1.3 billion, food security is directly related to the national economy and people's event. Since the founding of the PRC, China's grain production has achieved great achievement, but with urbanization, the process of industrialization's acceleration, population growth and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, food production is also facing tremendous pressure.Based on considerations of the cultivated land resources, population, food production area per unit and food security analysis, The article implants System Dynamics Model to analyze indicators of the grain output, share of grain per capita, food storage, food import, food export etc. in order to provide more accurate results and policy basis and the conclusions wheather the food crisis exists for government departments, while brings forward proposals about the development of food production, food security of our country.This article is divided into five sections. The first chapter is Introduction part, elaborates research background, research significance, research situation at home and abroad as well as the research Ideas. In the second chapter makes a brief introduction on the basic concepts of system dynamics, model structure, model principles and processes as well as the System Dynamics software VENSIM. In the third chapter, studies China's current development trends about food security: the situation of China's grain production, arable land resources situation, the total population and agricultural population, and evaluation index to draw the status of China's food security. Chapter IV, through the analysis of various factors, uses food security data which impacts food security , establishes food security System Dynamics simulation model consisted of arable land sub-model, population sub-model,food production capability sub-model and food security analysis sub-model. Chapter V, carrys out the history testing and sensitivity analysis about simulation results of the model to determine the reasonableness of model building, and comes to the results of the model analysis. At the end , makes appropriate recommendations and measures based on the analysis before.