Research On Prediction Of Food Security System Simulation Based On System Dynamics Model In China

Food is a kind of commodity with extraordinary significance.It is called "ballast stone" of economic and social development.Once the problem of food supply arises,it will bring panic to the whole society,which will undoubtedly affect the long-term stability of our country.The concept of "food security" was first proposed by the FAO in the 1970 s and was quickly endorsed and supported by the international community.At present,the global food security has not yet solved the crisis,and has been increasingly vicious development.As a big food producer and a big population country,our country is also under this crisis.In 2016,the global food safety index report shows that China's food safety index is 42,and 2017 has slipped to 45.Such a ranking is not consistent with China's great power status.In the long run,the balance between supply and demand of grain has always been the main problem of food security in China and even in the world.There are many factors affecting the supply and demand of grain,and the factors are interrelated.Therefore,this complex problem should be studied in a systematic way.Only in this way can we make the research results more scientific and accurate,and also provide a reliable theoretical basis for formulating effective policy measures in our country.Based on the analysis of the current situation of grain supply and demand,this paper uses system dynamics(SD-system dynamics)to construct the general system model of food security,which includes five subsystems: cultivated land,productivity,import,population and consumption.Through the detailed empirical analysis of each subsystem,we can judge the development trend of the general grain system.Finally,according to the forecasting results,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.This article is divided into seven parts.The first chapter is the general part,which introduces the research background,research significance,domestic and foreign research status,research content,research purpose,research method,technical route and innovation points.Chapter two introduces the theory of grain security,balance of grain supply and demand and system dynamics.Chapter three analyzes the present situation of grain supply and demand in China.In chapter four,the basic requirements of system dynamics modeling are introduced firstly.Then,according to the long-term food security problems,a foodsecurity system dynamics simulation model consisting of five sub-models,namely,cultivated land sub-model,productivity sub-model,import sub-model,human port sub-model and consumption sub-model,is established by using system dynamics.In chapter five,the operation test and history test are carried out on the simulation results to determine the rationality of the model system structure and simulation prediction,and the simulation results are given.In chapter six,basic conclusions are drawn from the above analysis.Chapter seven,based on the above analysis,puts forward the countermeasures and Suggestions for China's long-term food security.