| Since the reform and opening to the outside word, China's socialist market economic system has been established step by step. China's economy was rebounded from the recession of the 1980's, and increased rapidly in the 1990's; but in the late 1990's, it emerged relatively economic depression, such as a continued fail in commodity price, a poor market for merchandise. So the governments must strengthen the macro-economic control and regulatory capability to deal with the increasingly complex economic system. The governments need a tool to provide some scientific references for the policy-making, which can help them reckon with the development trend of the economy, discovery the latent problems of the economic development and analyze the characteristics of the macro-economy systematically. By the systematic analysis of the national economic structure and macroeconomic running feature of Jiangxi Province since its reform and opening, based on the standard research of system dynamics model building(involve structure modeling and equation modeling),and depending on the time series of economic variables, to use system science, co-integration theory, in-tree modeling of system dynamics and certain economic theories, the author established the system structure model of Jiangxi province, and build the equation model according to the method of multiple regression, factor analysis and random error model. The useful macroeconomic model was completed through the qualitative and quantitative testing. The model can be used for forecasting economic trend and stimulating policy-making. By the policy making tool of our established model, the dissertation analyzes the influence of finance expenditure, wage increase rate, and certain CPI to the major economic indexes, it can be concluded that the polarity of feedback between these variables and certain economic indexes is not the simple positive or negative, but changed around the increase rate of these variables. |
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