| Housing is one of the most basic needs of human beings,and the price of housing is also an important indicator of the economic development level in a country and region.The fluctuations in housing prices are closely related to our lives.Accompanied by the rapid growth of China's real estate,residential price have also shown a continuous upward trend.This not only poses challenges for residents to live and work in peace and contentment,but also affects the investment enthusiasm of real estate enterprises,and also restricts the development of social economy to a certain extent.In order to curb the excessive rise in housing prices,the government has successively adopted corresponding macro-control policies for real estate,but the effect of regulation and control is not satisfactory.At present,domestic research on commodity housing prices is mainly conducted through qualitative analysis.There are few quantitative and empirical studies,and there is a lack of clear understanding of the factors affecting the price of commercial housing and its influence,resulting in the lack of proper guidance for government macro-control,development enterprise decision-making and consumer investment.Therefore,it is necessary to reasonably analyze the mechanism of the effects of various macro-control policies on commodity housing prices,and formulate appropriate control policies according to their different levels of influence.This paper chooses the method of system dynamics to construct a model of the impact of macro-control policies on commodity housing prices,and simulates the model's policy control,and provides suggestions for the country to introduce macro-control policies.Firstly,on the basis of reviewing domestic and foreign research literatures,the factors affecting the price of commercial housing are summarized,and the relevant theories of macro-control policies are elaborated to further clarify the research content.Secondly,it analyzes its impact on commodity housing prices from three aspects:tax policy,financial policy and land policy.Through reviewing the national macro-control policies over the years,the paper analyzes the effectiveness of various regulatory policies,and systematically summarizes the main macro-control policies and their transmission mechanisms involved in China's real estate industry.Thirdly,according to the transmission mechanism of commodity control price,the three sub-modules of supply,demand and cost are used to construct the system model,and multiple regression analysis is used to determine the relationship between variables.Using the system dynamics software Vensim to simulate the trend of commercial housing prices during 2010-2020,and verify the validity of the simulation values,so that the constructed system dynamics model has good simulation performance.Finally,taking the Shenyang real estate market as an example,the macro-control policy simulation experiment was carried out.Through the adjustment of the five policy control tools of the development link tax rate,the circulation stage tax rate,the loan interest rate,the land price,and the land supply,the simulation predicts the degree of influence on the commodity housing price.The simulation experiment results show that the land price has the greatest effect on the regulation of commercial housing prices,and then the development tax rate,loan interest rate,and circulation tax rate.The least controlling tool for commodity housing price regulation is land supply. |
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