Adaptive Management Of Water Resources In Shandong Province And Its Evaluation Study

Shandong Province is faced with the growing water shortages. Affected by many uncertainties, the management of water resources in Shandong Province is difficult to form systematic test and analysis. Over the years, resolving water shortage problem has always sought help from engineering and technology. A growing number of studies have shown that the means of engineering and technology is certainly very important, but poor management of water resources that causes water shortage problem is one of the important reasons.Faced with certain changes and uncertain impact, the use of adaptive strategies in water resources development, management and use is the necessary condition for sustainable development. Faced with a series of serious problems and water management characteristics, adaptive management which was born in the 1970s and developed rapidly has brought new vitality to the water resources management in Shandong Province. Development of regional water resources is easy to produce a series of environmental problems. For a more rational development of water resources, overseas countries have carried out a series of studies. Research on the use of adaptive management in the field of water resources management is still in its infancy in China.Quantitative treatment of uncertainty is conducive to its timely reflection of the impact on management. On the basis of explaining the significance of the selected topic and analysis of the background, the thesis analyzed the adaptive management theory, the theoretical basis for water resources research and development of the status. It also described the status and the problems of water resources in Shandong Province.Adaptive management of water resources in Shandong Province is to coordinate the development of regional water resources system, economic, social and ecological systems. By identifying and examining the relevant factors that have effects on water resources in Shandong Province, the thesis analyzed and found out the specific objectives of water resources management within the study area. Focusing on a series of scientific research on the uncertainty of regional water resources management, the thesis built a model of goal-related factors. In this study, data of water resources management in 17 cities of Shandong Province in three years was collected. Exploratory factor analysis was used to reduce the number of variables, and it explored a number of key factors which have the most significant impact on the adaptive management of water resources in Shandong Province. The management and control of the key factors are the core of adaptive management of water resources in Shandong Province.To estimate the level of adaptive management of water resources in Shandong Province, application of factor analysis that calculated the average factor score was used to evaluate the adaptive management of water resources of 17 cities in Shandong province. AHP fits the complex situation of social sciences and can accurately reflect the problems in the field of social science. AHP method is beneficial to the assessment of adaptive management of water resources in Shandong Province. Therefore, on the basis of the points made by experts, the use of AHP method in the thesis was to calculate the weights of criteria layer in relation to target layer. Combined with the results of factor analysis, key indicators that are of the most significant impact to the evaluation of water resources adaptive management in Shandong Province were displayed according to the importance. A set of evaluation of adaptive management which was accord with characteristics of water resources in Shandong Province was set up.Based on the building of a system of adaptive management of water resources in Shandong Province, identifying the key influential factors, carrying out evaluation and constructing the evaluation index of water resources adaptive management in Shandong Province, the thesis provided feasible countermeasures of water resources adaptive management in Shandong Province according to the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis.This new model of water resources management in Shandong Province is important to increase the efficiency of the use of water resources and to promote sustainable use of water resources in the region where there is a shortage of water resource.