| Heilongjiang province is located in one of the three world’s famous chernozem, its natural condition is suitable for a variety of crops. Since 2003 grain output has continued to grow, the total grain output has reached 0.6×1011 kg, more than in Henan province, becoming the largest contribution area and fastest-growing region to the national food, plays a decisive role to ensure the food security of our country. With the increasing of grain production, because of the serious exploitation of groundwater, the long-term heavy use of chemical fertilizers, agricultural films, parts of Heilongjiang province has had the decrease of the cultivated land quality, degradation of soil desertification, soil erosion, non-point source pollution, deterioration of water environment and a series of environmental problems,all these problems are seriously affecting food production in Heilongjiang province and the sustainable use of water and soil resources.Aiming at the problems existing in the development and utilization of agricultural water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province, based on the regional sustainable development as the guiding ideology, this paper studied the optimization allocation of water resources in Heilongjiang Province to achieve a steady growth of regional food production. According to the risk analysis of food safety of agricultural water use plan in Heilongjiang Province, the paper provided an important theoretical basis for the sustainable utilization of water resources, the regional industrial structure adjustment and the improvement of the stability of the grain production capacity.The main contents and results of this study are as follows:(1) Through the analysis of present situation of development and utilization of water and soil resources, agricultural production status, we refined the existing problem in the development and utilization of resources. On the basis of analysis of international standards, national standards, this paper gives the classification standard of water resources carrying capacity evaluation index, provide a more reliable standard to evaluate the results between various regions. Based on the information entropy theory, this paper determines the weight of each index by using the actual data of the study area,and through the cloud model we realized the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in different administrative district of Heilongjiang province.The results show: the overall water resources carrying capacity in Heilongjiang in 2011 belongs in II level, Greater Khingan Range area belongs in I level; Jixi, Qitaihe and Mudanjiang water resources carrying capacity belongs in II level; Harbin, Qigihar, Hegang, Shuangyashan, Daqing, Heihe water resources carrying capacity belongs in III level; Yichun and Suihua, Jia Musi water resources carrying capacity belongs in IV level, The research results can provide a reference for the formulation of scientific and rational regional water resources development and utilization.(2) According to the basic principle of the whole set operation, objective system, hierarchical and regional characteristics of the index system, combined with the regional development and utilization of land resources, social development, economic and technological level and the protection of the ecological environment and other factors, This paper constructed the index system of comprehensive evaluation of regional water and soil resources carrying capacity. Based on the theory of reverse cloud, we used the data characteristics of the study area to seeking for objective, scientific land resources carrying capacity evaluation criteria, we also used the Xiang Yun generator to comprehensive evaluate the carrying capacity of the study area Evaluation results show that the bearing capacity of land resources in Heilongjiang province showed a trend of declining, Land resource carrying capacity in the year of 2012 more than the highest level, which is harmful for regional development. At the same time, the regional carrying capacity varies from region to region. This method can not only avoid the subjectivity of evaluation criteria, but also make the evaluation results more objective and effective, and provide a new research idea to objectively evaluate the carrying capacity of land resources.(3) According to the characteristics of the complex system of water and soil resources, we optimized the allocation of regional water and land resources based on complex adaptive system. This paper divided regional water and soil resources users into agents with adaptivity. The configuration of regional water and soil resources is the process of competition with each other, mutual cooperation in the adaptive selection based on the main pursuit of interests, agent based on the choice of adaptability of interests become the evolution of soil and water resources optimization allocation mechanism, the information entropy is used to calculate contribution of main body of the target, and on this basis, the target weight in the comprehensive benefit is determined. On the premise of fixed total regional soil and water resources, we put forward the adaptive regional soil and water resources optimization model, in order to provide a new research idea and mode to carry efficient utilization of regional water and soil resources.(4) This paper carried an empirical research in the example of Jiamusi(i.e. Major grain-producing areas of Sanjiang plain in Heilongjiang province), divided agents into three categories: system level agent, departmental level agent, user agent, in which include one system level agent; four departmental level agent are Life, industry, agriculture and ecology; user agent: include urban households and rural households; all water users in industrial sector; agricultural department include rice, corn, beans, potato and vegetables; ecological department include forest, grassland and water tidal flats. The nested genetic algorithm is used to solve the mode. The results show: The evolution of the model conforms to the adaptive behavior of agent; after the water and soil resources adaptive configuration, the regional economic benefit is increased by 3.34%, water department’s comprehensive satisfaction increased from 0.61 to 0.73, ecological division standard ecological area also increased by 5.6%. Research on regional soil and water resources sustainable use has strong guiding significance.(5) In line with the principles of regional harmonious development, on the basis of food production, water resources and population the raw data in Heilongjiang province from 2003-2010, we used multi-agent modeling method in complex adaptive system to dynamically simulate four utilization schemes to predict per capita grain, per capita income and guarantee rate of water in 2020 under different climate conditions. The measured data in the year of 2011 is used to carry risk analysis of the predicted results. The results showed that: Technological innovation, combined with a policy of comprehensive solution under different conditions is the best way to achieve food security, therefore, to further reduce the pressure of the water resources in Heilongjiang province, and the influence of climate conditions on the grain yield, the government should increase the advanced science and technology in the integrated use of various industry and policy regulation, to ensure the sustainable supply of water resources to regional food production.In summary, through the research of soil and water resources development and utilization status and carrying capacity evaluation in Heilongjiang province, we have a comprehensive understanding of the degree of soil and water resources development and utilization of Heilongjiang province, as well as the social economic development of the regional soil and water resources supporting capacity, taking Jiamusi in city of Heilongjiang Province as an example, we carried an empirical study on the adaptability of system theory of regional soil and water resources allocation model based on complex adaptive system. And on this basis, this paper carried dynamic simulation of water resources development and utilization plan by the constructed multi-agent model, predicted and analyzed grain production status in Heilongjiang province, provided theoretical guidance for regional sustainable use of water and soil resources and food safety guarantee.
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